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OTEXOpen Text CorporationHold5.8·$22.16-1.60%
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Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

OpenText is an Information Management software company offering cloud and hybrid solutions across six platforms: Content (40% of FY2025 revenue), Cybersecurity (25%), Business Network (10%), DevOps (10%), Observability and Service Management (10%), and Analytics (5%). Revenue... Read more

$22.16+13.9% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#42 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield15.31%
IncomeYield4.89%(5y avg 2.88%)Payout52.79%sustainable
Stop $20.93Target $25.23(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1
Analyst target$29.00+30.9%11 analysts
$25.23our TP
$22.16price
$29.00mean
$40

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9
P/E (Fwd)5.0
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta1.05
Dividend4.89%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$33+46.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductContent Cloud40%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended June 30, 2025, total revenues is comprised of 40% from Content Cloud'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James McGourlay transitioned from Interim CEO to President/Chief Client Officer effective April 20, 2026. Paul Duggan stepped down as President/Chief Customer Officer, remaining as EVP Special Advisor until July 1, 2026. No reason cited for Duggan's departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
1.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.4
Quality Rank
5.5
Value Rank
9.0
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.58Resistance $25.42

Price Targets

$21
$25
A.Upside+13.9%
A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 1.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OTEX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $22.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $25.23 (+13.9%), stop $20.93 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OTEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.23 (+13.9% upside). Target $25.23 (+13.9%), stop $20.93 (−5.9%), A.R:R 1.4:1. Stop-loss: $20.93.

What are the risks of investing in OTEX?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Negative momentum.

Is OTEX overvalued or undervalued?

Open Text Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 5.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OTEX?

9 analysts cover OTEX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $29.

What does Open Text Corporation do?OpenText is an Information Management software company offering cloud and hybrid solutions across six platforms:...

OpenText is an Information Management software company offering cloud and hybrid solutions across six platforms: Content (40% of FY2025 revenue), Cybersecurity (25%), Business Network (10%), DevOps (10%), Observability and Service Management (10%), and Analytics (5%). Revenue from cloud subscriptions, managed services, licenses, and professional services serves global enterprises and governments.

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