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OSKOshkosh Corporation (Holding CoSell5.7·$135.05+0.81%
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Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co (OSK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. At $135.05, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures specialty purpose-built vehicles through Access (43%), Vocational (36%), and Transport (20%) segments of 2025 net sales, serving construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse, and defense/delivery markets. Transport includes multi-year... Read more

$135.05+8.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 13 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.31%
IncomeYield1.69%(5y avg 1.59%)Payout23.39%sustainable
Stop $126.23Target $145.97(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$162.19+20.1%17 analysts
$145.97our TP
$135.05price
$162.19mean
$197

Sell if holding. At $135.05, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.1%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.0
P/E (Fwd)9.6
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA8.5
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta1.26
Dividend1.69%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.74neutral
IV56%elevated
Max Pain$200+48.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerU.S. government20%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 20% of its net sales in both 2025 and 2024, and 19% in 2023, from sales to the United States (U.S.) government'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.5
Bollinger
1.6
52w Position
5.1
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $116.25Resistance $136.00

Price Targets

$126
$146
A.Upside+8.1%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $135.05, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $126.23. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OSK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $145.97 (+8.1% upside). Prior stop was $126.23. Stop-loss: $126.23.

What are the risks of investing in OSK?

Thin upside margin: 8.1%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OSK overvalued or undervalued?

Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 9.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OSK?

22 analysts cover OSK with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $162.

What does Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co do?Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures specialty purpose-built vehicles through Access (43%), Vocational (36%),...

Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures specialty purpose-built vehicles through Access (43%), Vocational (36%), and Transport (20%) segments of 2025 net sales, serving construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse, and defense/delivery markets. Transport includes multi-year DoD contracts and the USPS NGDV program (up to 165,000 units over 10 years).

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