Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sell if holding. At $71.00, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Ford Component Sales; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers for diesel engines and propane powertrains.
Blue Bird is the leading independent designer and manufacturer of school buses, having sold 619,000+ buses since 1927. Two segments: Bus (93% of fiscal 2025 net sales, 9,409 buses sold) and Parts (7%); manufacturing is concentrated in Fort Valley, Georgia. Blue Bird leads the... Read more
Sell if holding. At $71.00, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Ford Component Sales; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers for diesel engines and propane powertrains. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-10Recent Developments — Blue Bird Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Is Blue Bird (BLBD) a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Blue Bird (BLBD) to Release Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS BLBD Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS Beat Drives Stock Higher on Operational Strength - ROE Trend Analysis - thelegaladvocate.com — thelegaladvocate.com positive
- NEWS Blue Bird: A Bargain Valuation For A Market Leader In High Gear (NASDAQ:BLBD) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Blue Bird director Daniel Thau buys $19,527 of BLBD stock By Investing.com - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierFord Component Sales10-K Item 1: 'Ford Component Sales supplies its 7.3L V8 engine exclusively to us'
- HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers for diesel engines and propane powertrains10-K Item 1A: 'We currently rely on a limited number of single-source suppliers and/or have limited alternatives for important bus parts such as diesel engines and emission components, propane and gasoline engines including powertrains'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOWSteve Girardin appointed as Class III Director effective April 1, 2026, in connection with Blue Bird's acquisition of remaining 50% of Micro Bird JV from the Girardin Group. Term expires at 2029 annual meeting.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWStockholders at March 11, 2026 annual meeting approved Amended and Restated 2015 Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan, increasing reserved shares by 900,000 (to 6,100,000 total) and extending term to November 21, 2035.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Revenue shrinking — -1.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $71.00, A.R:R is negative (-0.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Ford Component Sales; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers for diesel engines and propane powertrains. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $66.18. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $72.28 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $66.18. Stop-loss: $66.18.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Ford Component Sales; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers for diesel engines and propane powertrains; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Blue Bird Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover BLBD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $82.
What does Blue Bird Corporation do?Blue Bird is the leading independent designer and manufacturer of school buses, having sold 619,000+ buses since 1927....
Blue Bird is the leading independent designer and manufacturer of school buses, having sold 619,000+ buses since 1927. Two segments: Bus (93% of fiscal 2025 net sales, 9,409 buses sold) and Parts (7%); manufacturing is concentrated in Fort Valley, Georgia. Blue Bird leads the alternative-power segment with ~64% of all alternative-powered school buses sold from fiscal 2015-2025.