PACCAR has formed a golden cross breakout with the stock above all moving averages and a bullish MACD, but has surpassed analyst targets with negative upside of 5.9%, revenue is declining 9% year over year, and two consecutive earnings misses signal fundamental weakness in heavy truck demand.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Revenue Decline→Stable
- Golden Cross Breakout Momentum↑Improving
- Above Target Valuation Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $102.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $102.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 94d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — PACCAR Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PACCAR (PCAR) Stock Lags Despite Strong Q3 Earnings - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS PACCAR (PCAR) Stock Shrugs Off Strong Q3 Earnings Momentum - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street positive
- NEWS PCAR (PACCAR Inc.) posts narrow Q4 2025 EPS miss, shares rise 1.51 percent as investors shrug off the small shortfall. - — Xã Châu Thành negative
- NEWS PACCAR (PCAR) Could Be 18% Undervalued Following PACCAR Connect Launch - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street positive
- NEWS PACCAR ($PCAR) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $102.29 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $97.07. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $115.59 (+13.0% upside). Prior stop was $97.07. Stop-loss: $97.07.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.
PACCAR Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.5 (forward 14.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover PCAR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $128.
What does PACCAR Inc. do?The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in...
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.