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PCARPACCAR Inc.Sell4.9·$119.73+1.09%
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PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.

$119.73-1.7% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#11 of 13 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.38%
IncomeYield1.18%(5y avg 1.29%)Payout28.09%sustainable
Stop $113.72Target $117.59(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$126.12+5.3%16 analysts
$117.59our TP
$119.73price
$126.12mean
$109
$140

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202641d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.2
P/E (Fwd)17.5
Mkt Cap$62.3B
EV/EBITDA21.3
Profit Mgn8.9%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth-8.9%
Beta0.99
Dividend1.18%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.86neutral
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$185+54.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Named Executive Officer | Non-Equity Incentive Plan Compensation LTIP Cash Award | Total Compensation R. P. Feight | $6,834,144 | $19,453,009 H. C. Schippers | $1,330,337 | $5,037,791 B. J. Poplawski | $259,455 | $2,164,812 K. D. Baney | $596,624 | $3,761,067 C. M.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.3
52w Position
8.2

Revenue shrinking — -8.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.3
Earnings Growth
5.9
Declining revenue: -9%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
5.4
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 41d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
72 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $106.77Resistance $119.99

Price Targets

$114
$118
A.Upside-1.8%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (41d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PCAR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $119.73 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $113.72. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the PCAR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $117.59 (-1.7% upside). Prior stop was $113.72. Stop-loss: $113.72.

What are the risks of investing in PCAR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is PCAR overvalued or undervalued?

PACCAR Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.2 (forward 17.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PCAR?

26 analysts cover PCAR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $126.

What does PACCAR Inc. do?The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in...

The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.

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