PACCAR has formed a golden cross breakout with the stock above all moving averages and a bullish MACD, but has surpassed analyst targets with negative upside of 5.9%, revenue is declining 9% year over year, and two consecutive earnings misses signal fundamental weakness in heavy truck demand.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Revenue Decline→Stable
- Golden Cross Breakout Momentum→Stable
- Above Target Valuation Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sell if holding. At $122.85, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8).
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.
Sell if holding. At $122.85, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-13Recent Developments — PACCAR Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS PCAR (PACCAR Inc.) posts narrow Q4 2025 EPS miss, shares rise 1.51 percent as investors shrug off the small shortfall. - — Xã Châu Thành negative
- NEWS How The PACCAR (PCAR) Investment Story Is Evolving With New Valuation Targets And Technology Risks - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS PACCAR (PCAR) to Release Earnings on Tuesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS PACCAR Inc. (NASDAQ:PCAR) Given Consensus Rating of "Hold" by Analysts - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH Has $46.06 Million Stock Position in PACCAR Inc. $PCAR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-09-14T20:47:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $122.85, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $117.95. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $130.32 (+6.2% upside). Prior stop was $117.95. Stop-loss: $117.95.
Thin upside margin: 6.2%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
PACCAR Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.8 (forward 17.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts cover PCAR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $145.
What does PACCAR Inc. do?The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in...
The Company traces its predecessors to Seattle Car Manufacturing Company formed in 1905.