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OBDCBlue Owl Capital CorporationHold5.4·$11.13+1.00%
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Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 5.5%.

Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC focused on direct lending to U.S. upper-middle-market companies with EBITDA above $50 million, primarily through first lien senior secured loans. As of December 31, 2025, it held investments in 234 portfolio companies... Read more

$11.13+5.5% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#57 of 109 Asset Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield8.59%
IncomeYield12.89%(5y avg 9.05%)Payout215.71%at-risk
Stop $10.56Target $11.58(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$13.31+19.6%12 analysts
$11.58our TP
$11.13price
$13.31mean
$15

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 5.5%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%)
Thin upside margin: 5.5%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.7
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$5.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn20.2%
ROE4.8%
Rev Growth-14.6%
Beta0.67
Dividend12.89%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWloan_portfoliointernet software and services11%
    10-K Item 1: 'The largest industry in our portfolio as of December 31, 2025 was internet software and services, which represented, 11.1% of our total portfolio, based on fair value.'
  • HIGHloan_portfoliofirst lien debt investments73%
    10-K Item 1: 'our portfolio consisted of 73.1% first lien debt investments'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.6
Macd
3.7
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.0
Quality Rank
2.9
Value Rank
5.7
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $10.89Resistance $11.52

Price Targets

$11
$12
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OBDC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.13, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 5.5%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $11.58 (+4.0%), stop $10.56 (−5.4%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OBDC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.58 (+5.5% upside). Target $11.58 (+4.0%), stop $10.56 (−5.4%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $10.56.

What are the risks of investing in OBDC?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: first lien debt investments (73.1%); Thin upside margin: 5.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is OBDC overvalued or undervalued?

Blue Owl Capital Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.7 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OBDC?

19 analysts cover OBDC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Blue Owl Capital Corporation do?Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC focused on direct lending to U.S. upper-middle-market...

Blue Owl Capital Corporation is an externally managed BDC focused on direct lending to U.S. upper-middle-market companies with EBITDA above $50 million, primarily through first lien senior secured loans. As of December 31, 2025, it held investments in 234 portfolio companies with $17.19 billion in total assets and $7.40 billion in net assets.

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