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NWGNatWest Group plcHold5.7·$18.53+5.40%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NatWest Group trades at a forward P/E of 7.7x with 37% net margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and a perfect earnings beat streak over the last 4 quarters, but the stock has effectively reached analyst price targets and has falling on-balance volume, suggesting limited near-term upside.

Thesis pillars

  • Low Forward Pe Margin Of SafetyStable
  • Strong Earnings And MarginsDeteriorating
  • Obv Distribution SignalImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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NatWest Group plc (NWG) Stock Analysis

HoldValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Earnings in 1 day (2026-07-31). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.53, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments. The Retail Banking segment offers... Read more

$18.53-6.0% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#158 of 223 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.93%(5y avg 4.70%)Payout47.29%sustainable
Entry $16.06(200-day MA)Stop $15.10Target $18.22(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$20.48+10.6%4 analysts
$18.22our TP
$18.53price
$20.48mean
$23

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.53, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $18.53 has reached target $18.22. No upside to wait for. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-30

Recent Developments — NatWest Group plc

Generated 2026-07-31T01:03:40Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 20261d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.3% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.6
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$69.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn36.9%
ROE14.1%
Rev Growth7.5%
Beta0.81
Dividend4.93%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$25+34.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
0.4
Gap
4.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $17.21Resistance $18.59

Price Targets

$15
$16
$18
A.Upside-6.0%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NWG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.53, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $18.53 has reached target $18.22. No upside to wait for. Target $18.22 (-1.7%), stop $15.10 (−22.7%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NWG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $18.22 (-6.0% upside). Target $18.22 (-1.7%), stop $15.10 (−22.7%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $15.10.

What are the risks of investing in NWG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.3% away).

Is NWG overvalued or undervalued?

NatWest Group plc trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NWG?

27 analysts cover NWG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $20.

What does NatWest Group plc do?NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United...

NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments. The Retail Banking segment offers a range of banking products and related financial services, such as current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits, as well as mobile and online banking services. Its Private Banking segment provides banking, lending, and wealth management products for high-net-worth individuals and their business interests. The Commercial & Institutional segment consists of customer businesses under business banking, commercial mid-market, and corporates and institutions; and offers banking operations services in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, and Luxembourg, as well as products and solutions for businesses comprising start-ups, corporates, and large institutions. The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. NatWest Group plc was founded in 1727 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.

Related stocks: COLB (Columbia Banking System, Inc.) · ONB (Old National Bancorp) · ZION (Zions Bancorporation N.A.) · VLY (Valley National Bancorp) · PB (Prosperity Bancshares, Inc.)
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