Old National Bancorp has delivered 4 consecutive earnings beats with an average positive surprise of 3.1% and ranks as the industry growth leader among regional banks with 46% revenue growth year-over-year, but geographic concentration in the Midwest and Southeast alongside regulatory concentration with the OCC and a negative asymmetry ratio limit near-term upside appeal.
Thesis pillars
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth↓Deteriorating
- Geographic Regulatory Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast; Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC.
Old National Bancorp, the sixth largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets, operates 346 banking centers across the Midwest and Southeast through its subsidiary Old National Bank. The bank earns interest income on loans and fee income from wealth management, capital... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast; Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Old National Bancorp
About Old National Bancorp
With $72.2 billion in consolidated assets at December 31, 2025, Old National Bancorp ranked sixth among Midwest-headquartered banks and among the top 25 banking companies in the U.S. The Chicago-Naperville-Elgin MSA represented 32.8% of franchise deposits, Minneapolis-St. Paul 15.0%, and Evansville, Indiana 9.9%, all as of June 30, 2025. Old National Bank is subject to primary OCC supervision, and the holding company is regulated by the Federal Reserve under the Bank Holding Company Act.
Old National generates net interest income on commercial loans, commercial real estate, agricultural, residential mortgage, and home equity lines of credit, supplemented by fee income from wealth management, trust, brokerage, capital markets, and treasury management. The company operated 346 banking centers as of December 31, 2025, spanning Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Two acquisitions recently expanded the footprint: the May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, National Association added $16.3 billion in total assets, $11.1 billion in loans, and $12.9 billion of deposits, anchoring the Minnesota position; the April 2024 acquisition of CapStar Bank added $3.1 billion in total assets and $2.6 billion of deposits, extending Tennessee presence. Competition comes from commercial banks with substantially greater resources, as well as FinTech lenders whose marketplace volumes have grown significantly in recent years.
Show full overview
The 10-K identifies Old National's Midwest and Southeast loan concentration as a specific vulnerability: substantially all loans are made to individuals and businesses in those regional markets, creating credit quality exposure to those regions rather than national diversification. The Chicago-Naperville-Elgin MSA—representing 32.8% of franchise deposits—concentrates deposit and collateral risk in one urban economy. Commercial real estate loans carry the additional risk that repayment depends on income generated from the property, meaning CRE collateral values in the Chicago market may produce impairment at rates that diverge from national averages if regional conditions deteriorate.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Old National Bancorp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Old National Bancorp
Latest news
- NEWS Old National to host free presentation on fraud prevention, Wednesday, Oct. 7 - St. Cloud Live — St. Cloud Live neutral
- NEWS Old National Bancorp chief legal officer sells $533k in shares - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria negative
- NEWS Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) Q1 2026 earnings surge on larger loan book - Stock Titan — Stock Titan positive
- NEWS 5 Revealing Analyst Questions From Old National Bank’s Q1 Earnings Call - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Old National Bancorp Delivers 13% Revenue Growth in Q2 2026 - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicMidwest and Southeast10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of Old National's loans are to individuals and businesses in Old National's market areas in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States'
- MEDIUMGeographicChicago-Naperville-Elgin33%10-K Item 1: 'Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI| 32.8'
- HIGHregulatoryOCC10-K Item 1: 'Old National Bank is subject to primary regulation, supervision, and examination by the OCC'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $24.73, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast; Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $26.07 (+5.4%), stop $23.65 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $26.07 (+5.4% upside). Analyst target $26.07 (+5.4%), stop $23.65 (−4.6%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $23.65.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Midwest and Southeast; Concentration risk — Regulatory: OCC; Thin upside margin: 5.4%.
Old National Bancorp trades at a P/E of 10.1 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
18 analysts cover ONB with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Old National Bancorp do?Old National Bancorp, the sixth largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets, operates 346 banking centers across...
Old National Bancorp, the sixth largest Midwestern-headquartered bank by assets, operates 346 banking centers across the Midwest and Southeast through its subsidiary Old National Bank. The bank earns interest income on loans and fee income from wealth management, capital markets, and deposit services, with $72.2 billion in consolidated assets at December 31, 2025.