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NUNu Holdings Ltd.Hold6.5·$11.97
HoldHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Nu Holdings is delivering 44% revenue growth and a 30% return on equity, ranking best-in-class among regional bank peers on both margins and growth, but faces a negative news modifier from recent sentiment of -1.00, consecutive earnings misses, and is trading below the 200-day moving average in a recovering downtrend.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
  • Best In Class Growth And Roe→Stable
  • Negative News Sentiment Modifier↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldGrowthHigh Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Nu Holdings Ltd. provides digital banking platform in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, the Cayman Islands, and the United States. The company provides spending solutions comprising Nu credit and prepaid card, a digitally enabled card that acts as a credit and a prepaid card; Nubank+... Read more

$11.97+42.6% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#30 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $11.27Analyst target $17.07(−10% haircut)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst consensus$18.97+58.5%23 analysts
$17.07Analyst target
$11.97price
$18.97mean
$23

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.4
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$57.8B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn42.7%
ROE31.6%
Rev Growth52.1%
Beta0.95
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.03bearish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.9
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 25, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings in 14 days
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
25 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.62Resistance $16.19

Price Targets

$11
$17
A.Upside+42.6%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NU stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $11.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $17.07 (+42.6%), stop $11.27 (−6.2%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.5/10, high confidence.

What is the NU stock price target?

Analyst target: $17.07 (+42.6% upside). Analyst target $17.07 (+42.6%), stop $11.27 (−6.2%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $11.27.

What are the risks of investing in NU?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NU overvalued or undervalued?

Nu Holdings Ltd. trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NU?

26 analysts cover NU with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $19.

What does Nu Holdings Ltd. do?Nu Holdings Ltd. provides digital banking platform in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, the Cayman Islands, and the United...

Nu Holdings Ltd. provides digital banking platform in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, the Cayman Islands, and the United States. The company provides spending solutions comprising Nu credit and prepaid card, a digitally enabled card that acts as a credit and a prepaid card; Nubank+ Tier, an evolution of the Nu experience; Ultraviolet credit and prepaid card, a premium metal credit card; mobile payment solutions for NuAccount customers to make and receive transfers, pay bills, and make everyday purchases through their mobile phones; and Nu Shopping, an integrated marketplace that enables customers to purchase goods and services from various ecommerce retailers. It also offers transactional solutions, such as Nu Personal Accounts, a digital account solution for personal financial activities; Nu business accounts for entrepreneur customers and their businesses; and Nu business prepaid and credit card. In addition, it offers savings and investing solutions, including Money Boxes, a solution for goal-based investing; investing solutions, an attractive investment product with customized and conflict-free guidance; and NuCrypto, a solution for buying and selling cryptocurrencies through the Nu app. Further, the company provides borrowing solutions comprising personal unsecured and secured loans; Pix financing that enables credit card and digital account customers to make free and instant peer-to-peer transfers; Boleto financing, which enables credit card and digital account customers to make payments; purchase financing; cash-in financing; and NuPay to make online purchases and pay for services through Nu app. Additionally, it offers protection solutions, such as NuInsurance protection solutions, including life, mobile, auto, home, and financial protection insurance policies; and beyond financial services solutions, including NuTravel, a travel portal; and NuCel, a mobile phone service. Nu Holdings Ltd. was founded in 2013 and is based in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

Related stocks: COLB (Columbia Banking System, Inc.) · MFG (Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Sp) · BSBR (Banco Santander Brasil SA) · GBCI (Glacier Bancorp, Inc.) · BPOP (Popular, Inc.)
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