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NOGNorthern Oil and Gas, Inc.Sell5.2·$21.13-1.77%
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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.13: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with participating interests in oil and natural gas properties across the Williston Basin (30% of Q4 2025 production), Permian Basin (42%), Appalachian Basin (21%), and Uinta Basin (7%). It participates in wells operated by 100+... Read more

$21.13+41.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#26 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-0.57%
IncomeYield8.37%(5y avg 3.74%)Payout461.54%at-risk
Stop $20.34Target $29.97(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 5.7:1
Analyst target$34.44+63.0%9 analysts
$29.97our TP
$21.13price
$34.44mean
$38

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.13: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.28% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)5.2
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA3.3
Profit Mgn-32.4%
ROE-29.8%
Rev Growth-7.1%
Beta0.69
Dividend8.37%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV66%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMhedge_coveragecommodity hedge target 65%+ of next 18 months65%
    10-K Item 1: 'We have a rolling target of hedging 65% or more of our anticipated next 18-month production.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.0
Macd
3.1
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
9.2

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
2.1
Roa
2.9
Rule Of 40
3.0
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: -8 (fail)Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 5.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
24 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.97Resistance $25.16

Price Targets

$20
$30
A.Upside+41.8%
A.R:R5.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.28% of cap)
! momentum at 1.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $21.13: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10 and A.R:R 5.7:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $20.34. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $29.97 (+41.9% upside). Prior stop was $20.34. Stop-loss: $20.34.

What are the risks of investing in NOG?

Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (7 sells, 0.28% of cap).

Is NOG overvalued or undervalued?

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NOG?

13 analysts cover NOG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. do?Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with participating interests in oil and natural gas properties...

Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with participating interests in oil and natural gas properties across the Williston Basin (30% of Q4 2025 production), Permian Basin (42%), Appalachian Basin (21%), and Uinta Basin (7%). It participates in wells operated by 100+ partners with no single operator exceeding 11% of oil and gas sales; revenue derives from its proportionate share of production sold by operators at market prices. NOG targets hedging 65%+ of anticipated next 18-month production.

Related stocks: GPOR (Gulfport Energy Corporation) · DMLP (Dorchester Minerals, L.P.) · EXE (Expand Energy Corporation) · RRC (Range Resources Corporation) · CNX (CNX Resources Corporation)
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