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NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationHold5.8·$550.33-0.40%
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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $550.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5.

Northrop Grumman is a leading global defense technology company with four segments (Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, Space Systems) principally serving the U.S. Department of War and intelligence community. In fiscal 2025, the company generated $41.954B in... Read more

$550.33+14.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#10 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.65%
IncomeYield1.71%(5y avg 1.54%)Payout28.97%sustainable
Stop $525.09Target $627.26(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$696.95+26.6%21 analysts
$627.26our TP
$550.33price
$696.95mean
$815

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $550.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 37d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 21, 202637d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.53)
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5
Below 200-day MA

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.2
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$78.2B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE28.5%
Rev Growth4.4%
Beta-0.12
Dividend1.71%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government84%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales to the U.S. government accounted for 84 percent, 87 percent and 86 percent of sales during the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Board elected Admiral Christopher W. Grady as director effective February 12, 2026. Grady most recently served as 12th Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, retired Oct 2025. Board also approved expansion from 12 to 13 members and designated James S. Turley as Lead Independent Director effective May 20, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
3.1
Bollinger
4.0
52w Position
4.3
GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.2>=5.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 37d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $525.73Resistance $561.46

Price Targets

$525
$627
A.Upside+14.0%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-21 (37d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $550.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $627.26 (+14.0%), stop $525.09 (−4.8%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $627.26 (+14.0% upside). Target $627.26 (+14.0%), stop $525.09 (−4.8%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $525.09.

What are the risks of investing in NOC?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (84.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.0): -0.5; Below 200-day MA.

Is NOC overvalued or undervalued?

Northrop Grumman Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.2 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NOC?

28 analysts cover NOC with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $697.

What does Northrop Grumman Corporation do?Northrop Grumman is a leading global defense technology company with four segments (Aeronautics Systems, Defense...

Northrop Grumman is a leading global defense technology company with four segments (Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, Space Systems) principally serving the U.S. Department of War and intelligence community. In fiscal 2025, the company generated $41.954B in total sales with 84% from the U.S. government, and held $95.7B in total backlog. Key programs include the B-21 Raider, Sentinel ICBM, F-35 subsystems, and various space/missile defense programs.

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