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DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.Sell4.9·$48.90-1.59%
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Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense

Sell if holding. At $48.90, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers.

Leonardo DRS provides advanced defense technology to the U.S. military and allied forces through two segments: Advanced Sensing and Computing (sensors, EW, computing) and Integrated Mission Systems (naval propulsion, force protection). 80% of 2025 revenues came from U.S.... Read more

$48.90+2.2% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#37 of 47 Aerospace & Defense
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.04%
IncomeYield0.74%Payout33.64%sustainable
Stop $45.13Target $49.58(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$52.90+8.2%10 analysts
$49.58our TP
$48.90price
$52.90mean
$47
$59

Sell if holding. At $48.90, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.4
P/E (Fwd)33.7
Mkt Cap$12.9B
EV/EBITDA27.9
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE10.9%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta0.12
Dividend0.74%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV80%elevated
Max Pain$60+22.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerU.S. government80%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenues derived directly, as a prime contractor, or indirectly, as a subcontractor, from contracts with the U.S. government represented 80%, 79% and 80% of our total revenues for 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Navy36%
    10-K Item 1: 'revenues principally derived directly or indirectly from contracts with the U.S. Navy and U.S. Army, which represented 36% and 36%, respectively, of our total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomerU.S. Army36%
    10-K Item 1: 'revenues principally derived directly or indirectly from contracts with the U.S. Navy and U.S. Army, which represented 36% and 36%, respectively, of our total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
  • HIGHSuppliersole-source component suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'several suppliers serve as the sole source of certain components. If a supplier should cease to deliver such components, generally, but not in all cases, we would expect that other sources would be available'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-10Item 5.02LOW
    David W. Carey (proxy holder director) retiring March 31, 2026 after 17 years; no disagreement cited. Reuben Jeffery III approved by DCSA and appointed as replacement proxy holder director effective April 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
5.3
Quality Rank
5.7

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.7
Forward Pe
3.3
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.0
Ps
7.9
Forward P/E: 33.7xPEG: 1.53
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $41.33Resistance $50.59

Price Targets

$45
$50
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DRS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $48.90, A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 61, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $45.13. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the DRS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $49.58 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $45.13. Stop-loss: $45.13.

What are the risks of investing in DRS?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government (80.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: sole-source component suppliers; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is DRS overvalued or undervalued?

Leonardo DRS, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.4 (forward 33.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DRS?

15 analysts cover DRS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Leonardo DRS, Inc. do?Leonardo DRS provides advanced defense technology to the U.S. military and allied forces through two segments: Advanced...

Leonardo DRS provides advanced defense technology to the U.S. military and allied forces through two segments: Advanced Sensing and Computing (sensors, EW, computing) and Integrated Mission Systems (naval propulsion, force protection). 80% of 2025 revenues came from U.S. government contracts, with the Navy and Army each representing 36% of total revenues.

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