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NMFCNew Mountain Finance CorporatioSell5.4·$7.04-0.07%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NMFC screens as attractively valued on forward earnings multiples, but a confirmed technical downtrend, declining revenue, consecutive earnings misses, and a failed asymmetry gate all argue for caution despite the cheap headline valuation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Vs Earnings PowerStable
  • Declining Revenue Growth ConcernStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

New Mountain Finance Corporatio (NMFC) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. At $7.04, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

New Mountain Finance Corporation is a business development company (BDC) that provides senior secured and unitranche loans to U.S. upper middle market companies backed by private equity sponsors, managed by New Mountain Capital, a firm with approximately $60 billion in assets... Read more

$7.04+5.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#135 of 244 Asset Management
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield14.02%
IncomeYield16.95%(5y avg 11.13%)Payout800.00%at-risk
Stop $6.65Target $7.43(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$8.54+21.3%6 analysts
$7.43our TP
$7.04price
$8.54mean
$10

Sell if holding. At $7.04, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About New Mountain Finance Corporatio

About New Mountain Finance Corporatio

New Mountain Finance Corporation held $2,742.0 million in investments across 113 portfolio companies as of December 31, 2025, generating a weighted average yield to maturity at cost of 9.6 percent, with its portfolio invested 66.3 percent in first lien loans, 3.3 percent in second lien loans, 4.4 percent in subordinated debt and 25.8 percent in equity and other positions. The business development company has raised approximately $1,034.6 million in net proceeds from stock offerings since its 2011 IPO.

New Mountain Finance is managed by New Mountain Finance Advisers, a subsidiary of New Mountain Capital, a global investment firm that focuses on defensive growth companies across private equity, credit and net lease strategies. The company targets senior secured debt of U.S. sponsor-backed middle market companies with EBITDA between $10 million and $200 million, generating income primarily through cash interest on first lien and unitranche loans, supplemented by capital appreciation from equity co-investments alongside private equity sponsors. Its top ten portfolio company investments, including NMFC Senior Loan Program III LLC and New Benevis Topco/Holdco, together with its top ten industries led by software, business services and healthcare, represent a concentrated share of the portfolio, while majority-owned subsidiary New Mountain Net Lease Corporation separately holds triple-net-leased commercial real estate and has elected REIT status.

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New Mountain Finance's structure as a regulated investment company and business development company constrains its flexibility: to maintain RIC tax treatment it must distribute at least 90 percent of taxable income annually, and as a BDC it must invest at least 70 percent of total assets in qualifying assets such as U.S. private or thinly traded companies, restrictions that limit its ability to retain capital or pursue certain opportunistic investments. The 10-K also notes that Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's long-term credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 in May 2025, following Fitch's 2023 downgrade to AA+, developments the filing cites as a factor that could raise the company's own borrowing costs and constrain access to debt capital markets.

See also: Financial Services · Asset Management

From New Mountain Finance Corporatio's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.4%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.8
Mkt Cap$673M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn-18.6%
ROE-4.8%
Rev Growth-19.7%
Beta0.61
Dividend16.95%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.27bearish

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductsoftware, business services, healthcare, investment funds and consumer services
    10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, our top five industry concentrations were software, business services, healthcare, investment funds ... and consumer services.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUM
    New Mountain Finance appointed Laura C. Holson as interim Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer effective May 29, 2026; Holson is an existing Investment Committee member serving as a named successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.1
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
6.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Growth Rank
0.8
Value Rank
9.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.5
Earnings concerns: 0B/2MDividend: 16.9%
GatesMomentum 2.3<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.80Resistance $7.83

Price Targets

$7
$7
A.Upside+5.5%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.0 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NMFC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $7.04, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $6.65. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NMFC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.43 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $6.65. Stop-loss: $6.65.

What are the risks of investing in NMFC?

Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is NMFC overvalued or undervalued?

New Mountain Finance Corporatio trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NMFC?

12 analysts cover NMFC with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $9.

What does New Mountain Finance Corporatio do?New Mountain Finance Corporation is a business development company (BDC) that provides senior secured and unitranche...

New Mountain Finance Corporation is a business development company (BDC) that provides senior secured and unitranche loans to U.S. upper middle market companies backed by private equity sponsors, managed by New Mountain Capital, a firm with approximately $60 billion in assets under management. As of December 31, 2025, the company held $2,742.0 million in investments across 113 portfolio companies, with its top five industries concentrated in software, business services, healthcare, investment funds and consumer services.

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