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Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $174.96: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

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$174.96+26.0% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Stop $160.73Target $212.50(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.7:1
Analyst target$250.00+42.9%3 analysts
$212.50our TP
$174.96price
$250.00mean
$280

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $174.96: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (71 sells, 0.26% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.0
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$6.4B
EV/EBITDA12.5
Profit Mgn16.1%
ROE30.7%
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta1.11
Dividend1.19%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.12bearish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$145-17.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5A.R:R 2.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $165.70Resistance $192.79

Price Targets

$161
$213
A.Upside+21.5%
A.R:R2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MORN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $174.96: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $160.73. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MORN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $212.50 (+26.0% upside). Prior stop was $160.73. Stop-loss: $160.73.

What are the risks of investing in MORN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 1.9), Material insider selling (71 sells, 0.26% of cap).

Is MORN overvalued or undervalued?

Morningstar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MORN?

9 analysts cover MORN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $250.

What does Morningstar, Inc. do?Our mission is to empower investor success. We deliver connected data, independent research, investor-first tools, and...

Our mission is to empower investor success. We deliver connected data, independent research, investor-first tools, and long-term portfolio strategies with a focus on removing frictions that can slow decisions, cloud markets, and drive up costs.

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