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MORNMorningstar, Inc.Buy Wait6.3·$175.30-1.04%
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Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $177.30 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum.

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$175.30+22.8% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#3 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.80%
IncomeYield1.14%(5y avg 0.62%)Payout19.53%sustainable
Entry $177.30(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $161.95Target $209.10(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$246.00+40.3%2 analysts
$209.10our TP
$175.30price
$246.00mean
$280

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $177.30 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.26, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.6/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.9
P/E (Fwd)12.9
Mkt Cap$6.7B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn16.1%
ROE30.7%
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta0.99
Dividend1.14%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$340+94.0% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Name | Votes For | Votes Against | Abstentions | Broker Non-Votes Joe Mansueto | 33,192,034 | 508,755 | 6,874 | 1,281,152 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
3.6
Rsi
4.5
Obv
4.8
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $166.41Resistance $196.92

Price Targets

$162
$177
$209
A.Upside+19.3%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MORN stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $177.30 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross); recent C-suite change still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.26, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.6/10). Target $209.10 (+19.3%), stop $161.95 (−8.2%), Setup A.R:R 4.4:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MORN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $209.10 (+22.8% upside). Target $209.10 (+19.3%), stop $161.95 (−8.2%), Setup A.R:R 4.4:1. Stop-loss: $161.95.

What are the risks of investing in MORN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MORN overvalued or undervalued?

Morningstar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.9 (forward 12.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MORN?

9 analysts cover MORN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $246.

What does Morningstar, Inc. do?Our mission is to empower investor success. We deliver connected data, independent research, investor-first tools, and...

Our mission is to empower investor success. We deliver connected data, independent research, investor-first tools, and long-term portfolio strategies with a focus on removing frictions that can slow decisions, cloud markets, and drive up costs.

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