The bundle shows a wide economic moat, 25% return on equity, and best-in-class peer margins — durable quality indicators — but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend declining at roughly 5% per month and offers only 2% upside to its near-term target with unfavorable risk/reward, making the current setup more suitable for existing holders than new entrants.
Thesis pillars
- Confirmed Downtrend Headwind↓Deteriorating
- Fcf Conversion Quality Gap→Stable
- Wide Moat Quality Franchise→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Jan 22, 2026
McCormick & Company, Incorporat (MKC-V) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
McCormick manufactures and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally in two segments — Consumer (58% of 2025 net sales) and Flavor Solutions (42%) — with approximately 39% of sales from non-U.S. operations and 14,100 employees. Walmart and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWal-Mart Stores, Inc.12%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to one of our Consumer segment customers, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc., accounted for consolidated sales of approximately 12% in 2025'
- LOWCustomerPepsiCo, Inc.12%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to one of our Flavor Solutions segment customers, PepsiCo, Inc., accounted for consolidated sales of approximately 12% in 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop three Flavor Solutions customers49%10-K Item 1: 'the top three customers in our Flavor Solutions segment represented 49% of our global Flavor Solutions sales'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-26Item 5.02LOWCindy Hoots appointed to McCormick Board effective June 1, 2026, joining Audit Committee. Ms. Hoots is recently retired Chief Digital Officer and CIO of AstraZeneca PLC. No departures cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-17Item 5.02MEDIUMAndrew Foust, President Americas, appointed Chief Integration Officer for Unilever PLC foods combination. Patrick Davis named Interim President Americas. Foust expected to return to President Americas post-integration.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-18Item 5.02MEDIUMGregory P. Repas retiring as VP & Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) effective April 1, 2026. Julie Giese appointed successor VP & Controller and PAO effective April 1, 2026 at $400,000 annual base salary.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $46.05, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Resistance target $48.99 (+6.4%), stop $43.20 (−6.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Resistance target: $48.99 (+6.4% upside). Resistance target $48.99 (+6.4%), stop $43.20 (−6.6%), A.R:R 0.0:1. Stop-loss: $43.20.
Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
McCormick & Company, Incorporat trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
What does McCormick & Company, Incorporat do?McCormick manufactures and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally in two...
McCormick manufactures and distributes herbs, spices, seasonings, condiments, and flavor solutions globally in two segments — Consumer (58% of 2025 net sales) and Flavor Solutions (42%) — with approximately 39% of sales from non-U.S. operations and 14,100 employees. Walmart and PepsiCo each represented roughly 12% of 2025 consolidated sales, and the top three Flavor Solutions customers accounted for 49% of global Flavor Solutions sales.