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MCHBMechanics BancorpSell6.3·$15.43+1.71%
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Mechanics Bancorp (MCHB) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.43 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away).

Mechanics Bancorp operates through Mechanics Bank, a full-service community bank with 166 branches across California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii following its September 2025 merger with HomeStreet Bank. Revenue comes from commercial lending, residential mortgages, CRE, and... Read more

$15.43-1.3% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#30 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield8.49%(5y avg 2.43%)Payout327.59%at-risk
Stop $14.71Target $15.23(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$16.50+6.9%3 analysts
$15.23our TP
$15.43price
$16.50mean
$15
$17

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.43 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 27, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.7% away)
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$3.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn38.7%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth30.7%
Beta0.16
Dividend8.49%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV177%elevated
Max Pain$15-2.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Erm
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 849.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.4
Support Resistance
0.6
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $13.62Resistance $15.54

Price Targets

$15
$15
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-27 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MCHB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $15.43 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.7% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.71. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MCHB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.23 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $14.71. Stop-loss: $14.71.

What are the risks of investing in MCHB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.7% away); Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is MCHB overvalued or undervalued?

Mechanics Bancorp trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MCHB?

9 analysts cover MCHB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Mechanics Bancorp do?Mechanics Bancorp operates through Mechanics Bank, a full-service community bank with 166 branches across California,...

Mechanics Bancorp operates through Mechanics Bank, a full-service community bank with 166 branches across California, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii following its September 2025 merger with HomeStreet Bank. Revenue comes from commercial lending, residential mortgages, CRE, and deposit services; headquartered in Walnut Creek, California, it focuses on business banking, private banking, and wealth management.

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