Deep valuation and industry-leading growth are offset by momentum that has stalled below the minimum constructive threshold and a market capitalization below the $1 billion investable-universe floor; the earnings beat track record is a positive but insufficient to overcome the structural barriers to institutional participation and the weak near-term price action.
Thesis pillars
- Deep Value With Sector Leading Growth→Stable
- Momentum Stalled Volume Distribution↑Improving
- Consistent Earnings Beat Cadence↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
LSB Industries, Inc. (LXU) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Sector Rotation edge
Basic Materials · Chemicals
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
LSB Industries manufactures ammonia and ammonia-based chemical products, including AN, nitric acid, and UAN, at facilities in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Alabama plus a Covestro-owned facility it operates in Baytown, Texas, serving agricultural customers (farmers, ranchers,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About LSB Industries, Inc.
About LSB Industries, Inc.
LSB Industries generated 2025 net sales split 39% from AN and nitric acid, 31% from UAN, and 24% from ammonia, manufactured at three chemical facilities in El Dorado, Arkansas; Cherokee, Alabama; and Pryor, Oklahoma, plus a fourth facility it operates for Covestro in Baytown, Texas. The company purchased approximately 30.5 million MMBtus of natural gas in 2025, its primary raw material, and serves both agricultural customers (farmers, ranchers, fertilizer dealers) and industrial customers in mining, explosives, and emission-control markets.
LSB balances two sales models: agricultural products (UAN, ammonia) sold at spot prices or short-duration forward commitments to farmers, ranchers, and fertilizer dealers, and industrial products (nitric acid, AN, ammonia derivatives) sold under contracts that typically pass raw-material cost changes through to customers such as explosives makers and mining companies. Five customers accounted for approximately 32% of 2025 consolidated net sales, and the company competes against larger, better-resourced chemical producers including CF Industries, Nutrien, Yara International, Koch Industries, and Orica. Natural gas, purchased mostly at first-of-month market prices with limited forward hedges (about 0.2 million MMBtus locked in at $4.39 per MMBtu as of December 31, 2025), is the primary cost driver, and LSB says its blend of agricultural and industrial customers helps offset the seasonality and price-correlation gaps that pure fertilizer producers face.
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LSB's customer concentration is amplified by physical co-location: one customer operates a production plant located directly at LSB's El Dorado, Arkansas facility under a long-term LDAN and AN solution supply contract priced mostly on a natural-gas cost pass-through basis, tying that customer relationship to the specific plant rather than to LSB's broader network. Combined with the five customers that made up 32% of 2025 net sales, the loss of even one or two of these relationships - particularly the on-site customer - could strand capacity at a single facility in a way that would be harder to redirect to other buyers than a typical merchant sale.
See also: Basic Materials · Chemicals
From LSB Industries, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — LSB Industries, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Lsb Industries (NYSE:LXU) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.42 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Lsb Industries (NYSE:LXU) Posts Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.42 EPS - marketbeat.com — marketbeat.com negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (LXU) LSB Industries, Inc. Reports Q2 Revenue $168.1M, vs. FactSet Est of $155.5M - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS LSB INDUSTRIES ($LXU) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings, Stock Rises - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative positive
- NEWS Lsb Industries (NYSE:LXU) Releases Quarterly Earnings Results - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductAN & Nitric acid39%10-K Item 1: 'AN & Nitric acid | | | 39 | % | | | 41 | %'
- MEDIUMProductUrea ammonium nitrate (UAN)31%10-K Item 1: 'Urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) | | | 31 | % | | | 27 | %'
- LOWProductAmmonia24%10-K Item 1: 'Ammonia | | | 24 | % | | | 26 | %'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-5 customers32%10-K Item 1: 'For 2025, five customers accounted for approximately 32% of our consolidated net sales.'
- MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas10-K Item 1A: 'Natural gas represents the primary raw material in the production of most of our chemical products.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $10.29, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $11.31 (+9.9%), stop $9.57 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $11.31 (+9.9% upside). Analyst target $11.31 (+9.9%), stop $9.57 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $9.57.
Thin upside margin: 9.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.
LSB Industries, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover LXU with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $13.
What does LSB Industries, Inc. do?LSB Industries manufactures ammonia and ammonia-based chemical products, including AN, nitric acid, and UAN, at...
LSB Industries manufactures ammonia and ammonia-based chemical products, including AN, nitric acid, and UAN, at facilities in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Alabama plus a Covestro-owned facility it operates in Baytown, Texas, serving agricultural customers (farmers, ranchers, fertilizer dealers) and industrial customers (mining, explosives, and emission-control markets). Net sales in 2025 split roughly 39% AN and nitric acid, 31% UAN, and 24% ammonia, with five customers accounting for approximately 32% of consolidated net sales. LSB's low-cost U.S. natural gas access, its primary feedstock, underpi