Life Time operates a fitness membership business delivering three of its last four quarters above consensus with a positive technical backdrop, but free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, revenue is heavily concentrated in dues and enrollment fees, and with only 5.1% headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1, the current entry point offers insufficient upside relative to the potential drawdown.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Delivery↑Improving
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Membership Revenue Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Wait for pullback to $41.75. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $43.14. Engine's entry $41.75 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average... Read more
Wait for pullback to $41.75. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $43.14. Engine's entry $41.75 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, news boost earnings 0.60, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Life Time Group and Strategy have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Bull of the Day: Life Time Group Holdings (LTH) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Bull of the Day: Life Time Group Holdings (LTH) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Bull of the Day: Life Time Group Holdings (LTH) - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Life Time Group and Strategy have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day - tradingview.com — tradingview.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductmembership dues and enrollment fees72%10-K Item 1: 'our membership dues and enrollment fees now representing over 72% of our total Center revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWDirector Andres Small resigned effective May 20, 2026; replaced by Rachael Wagner appointed as independent Class III director with term expiring at 2027 annual meeting. Board remains at 12 members, 10 independent.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWDirector Alejandro Santo Domingo gave notice of intention to resign from Board effective March 31, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $41.75. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $43.14. Engine's entry $41.75 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $50.34 (+16.7%), stop $39.01 (−10.6%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $50.34 (+16.7% upside). Target $50.34 (+16.7%), stop $39.01 (−10.6%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $39.01.
Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
19 analysts cover LTH with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $56.
What does Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. do?Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million...
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average annual revenue per center membership of $3,531 in 2025. The company employs over 44,000 team members and targets affluent suburban and urban markets.