Life Time operates a fitness membership business delivering three of its last four quarters above consensus with a positive technical backdrop, but free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, revenue is heavily concentrated in dues and enrollment fees, and with only 5.1% headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1, the current entry point offers insufficient upside relative to the potential drawdown.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Delivery→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Membership Revenue Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Wait for pullback to $40.70. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $45.00. Engine's entry $40.70 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average... Read more
Wait for pullback to $40.70. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $45.00. Engine's entry $40.70 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (positive momentum, news boost earnings 0.70, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Life Time Group and Strategy have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail positive
- NEWS Bull of the Day: Life Time Group Holdings (LTH) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Life Time Group and Strategy have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day - tradingview.com — tradingview.com positive
- NEWS Life Time Group and Strategy have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day - TradingView — TradingView positive
- NEWS A Look at Life Time Group Holdings Inc (LTH) After 4.3% Gain -- GF Value $28.14 vs Price $45.63 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
Generated 2026-07-30T22:29:13Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductmembership dues and enrollment fees72%10-K Item 1: 'our membership dues and enrollment fees now representing over 72% of our total Center revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWDirector Andres Small resigned effective May 20, 2026; replaced by Rachael Wagner appointed as independent Class III director with term expiring at 2027 annual meeting. Board remains at 12 members, 10 independent.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWDirector Alejandro Santo Domingo gave notice of intention to resign from Board effective March 31, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $40.70. Insider activity concern; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $45.00. Engine's entry $40.70 (support + ATR) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $46.29 (+2.9%), stop $38.76 (−16.1%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.29 (-8.3% upside). Target $46.29 (+2.9%), stop $38.76 (−16.1%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $38.76.
Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.7 (forward 23.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
19 analysts cover LTH with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. do?Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million...
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average annual revenue per center membership of $3,531 in 2025. The company employs over 44,000 team members and targets affluent suburban and urban markets.