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HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Intuit's wide economic moat, 22% net margins, Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging 22.2% upside support a long-term case with 60.4% implied upside to analyst targets; however, a severe technical breakdown — momentum scoring 1.6 out of 10, confirmed death cross, falling on-balance volume, and a put/call ratio of 2.07 — constitutes a firm technical barrier to new entries and requires a meaningful recovery before the fundamental case can be acted on.

Thesis pillars

  • Single Segment Concentration↓Deteriorating
  • Wide Moat Compounding Quality→Stable
  • Severe Momentum Breakdown↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Sep 9, 2026

Full reasoning →

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Intuit Inc. (INTU) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldValueQualityModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $328.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth.

Intuit runs a financial technology platform serving about 93 million consumers, small and mid-market businesses and accountants through TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, Mailchimp and Intuit Enterprise Suite. Revenue splits 60% Global Business Solutions and 40% Consumer in... Read more

$328.19+14.3% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#55 of 116 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield7.24%
IncomeYield1.68%(5y avg 0.65%)Payout29.16%sustainable
Stop $305.22Analyst target $375.14(−8% haircut)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst consensus$407.76+24.2%31 analysts
$375.14Analyst target
$328.19price
$407.76mean
$732

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $328.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Intuit Inc.

About Intuit Inc.

Intuit serves approximately 93 million consumers, small and mid-market businesses and accountants worldwide through TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, Mailchimp, Intuit Enterprise Suite and Intuit Accountant Suite. Global Business Solutions contributed 60% of fiscal 2026 revenue and the Consumer segment 40%, versus 59% and 41% in fiscal 2025. International net revenue was approximately 8% of the consolidated total in each of fiscal 2024, 2025 and 2026.

Global Business Solutions sells QuickBooks and Intuit Enterprise Suite as subscriptions, along with payroll and human capital tools, merchant payment processing, bill pay, QuickBooks Checking through an FDIC-member bank partner, and small-business financing originated through a bank partner or the QuickBooks Capital Marketplace. Mailchimp adds email marketing, and Intuit Accountant Suite serves accounting firms. The Consumer segment sells do-it-yourself and expert-assisted TurboTax products in the United States and Canada, plus Credit Karma, which earns by connecting users with credit card, loan and insurance partners that include credit bureaus, banks and lenders. ProTax products such as Lacerte and ProSeries serve professional accountants. Intuit says its strategy rests on a platform that pairs proprietary data, AI agents and a network of thousands of human tax and bookkeeping experts, and it lists free and low-cost providers among its competitors.

Show full overview

Public-sector competition and seasonality shape the consumer tax franchise. The filing warns that federal and state governments could become publicly funded direct competitors, noting that the IRS free direct filing system was suspended while the legacy IRS Free File Program still lets the agency offer free commercial software to qualifying taxpayers. Tax revenue is typically heavily concentrated from November through April, lifting results in the quarters ending January 31 and April 30. Credit Karma user data is also subject to an FTC order that requires a security program and biennial independent assessments through 2034, and noncompliance could lead to fines or enforcement action.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Intuit Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 19, 202621d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.9
P/E (Fwd)12.2
Mkt Cap$87.7B
EV/EBITDA13.0
Profit Mgn21.3%
ROE23.6%
Rev Growth13.7%
Beta1.01
Dividend1.68%
Rating analysts41

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.35bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$170-48.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWGeographicinternational net revenue8.0%
    10-K Item 1: 'Total international net revenue was approximately 8% of consolidated total net revenue'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
3.5
Support Resistance
3.6
Gap
6.0

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.7
Revenue Growth
5.9
GatesMomentum 4.3<4.5A.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
62 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $276.02Resistance $358.03

Price Targets

$305
$375
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-19 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is INTU stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $328.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $375.14 (+14.3%), stop $305.22 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the INTU stock price target?

Analyst target: $375.14 (+14.3% upside). Analyst target $375.14 (+14.3%), stop $305.22 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $305.22.

What are the risks of investing in INTU?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is INTU overvalued or undervalued?

Intuit Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about INTU?

41 analysts cover INTU with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $408.

What does Intuit Inc. do?Intuit runs a financial technology platform serving about 93 million consumers, small and mid-market businesses and...

Intuit runs a financial technology platform serving about 93 million consumers, small and mid-market businesses and accountants through TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, Mailchimp and Intuit Enterprise Suite. Revenue splits 60% Global Business Solutions and 40% Consumer in fiscal 2026, earned from subscriptions, tax preparation, payments, and partner referrals. International is about 8% of revenue. Item 1 cites proprietary data and a network of AI-enabled human experts as its advantage.

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