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IMOImperial Oil LimitedHold5.5·$119.44-2.53%
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Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $119.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen.

Imperial Oil is Canada's largest petroleum refiner and a major integrated oil company, operating through Upstream (bitumen at Cold Lake and Kearl, synthetic crude at Syncrude), Downstream (three refineries), and Chemical segments. ExxonMobil owns approximately 69.6% of the... Read more

$119.44+13.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#11 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.78%
IncomeYield2.04%(5y avg 2.24%)Payout51.36%sustainable
Stop $113.67Target $135.95(resistance)A.R:R -3.4:1
Analyst target$109.08-8.7%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $119.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%)
Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.0
P/E (Fwd)16.4
Mkt Cap$60.9B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn6.2%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth-0.4%
Beta0.80
Dividend2.04%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV60%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCanada100%
    10-K Item 1: 'All of the company's reported reserves are located in Canada'
  • HIGHCommoditybitumen
    10-K Item 1: 'A significant portion of the company's production is bitumen, which is blended with diluent for transportation and marketability of heavy crude oil'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Growth Rank
2.4
Quality Rank
3.8
GatesMomentum 4.5<4.5A.R:R -3.4=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $117.19Resistance $138.72

Price Targets

$114
$136
A.Upside+13.8%
A.R:R-3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-22.4% upside)
! momentum at 4.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IMO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $119.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $135.95 (+13.8%), stop $113.67 (−5.1%), A.R:R -3.4:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IMO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $135.95 (+13.8% upside). Target $135.95 (+13.8%), stop $113.67 (−5.1%), A.R:R -3.4:1. Stop-loss: $113.67.

What are the risks of investing in IMO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is IMO overvalued or undervalued?

Imperial Oil Limited trades at a P/E of 29.0 (forward 16.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about IMO?

22 analysts cover IMO with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $109.

What does Imperial Oil Limited do?Imperial Oil is Canada's largest petroleum refiner and a major integrated oil company, operating through Upstream...

Imperial Oil is Canada's largest petroleum refiner and a major integrated oil company, operating through Upstream (bitumen at Cold Lake and Kearl, synthetic crude at Syncrude), Downstream (three refineries), and Chemical segments. ExxonMobil owns approximately 69.6% of the company; all proved reserves and production are located in Canada. Net production averaged 382,000 barrels per day oil-equivalent in 2025.

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