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HSYThe Hershey CompanyHold5.8·$181.66+0.45%
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The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Confectioners

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $181.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.6%.

The Hershey Company is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, selling confectionery, salty snacks, and international products under 85+ brand names through North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks,... Read more

$181.66+7.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 3 Confectioners
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield4.14%
IncomeYield3.20%(5y avg 2.33%)Payout103.58%at-risk
Stop $170.28Target $195.42(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$217.14+19.5%22 analysts
$195.42our TP
$181.66price
$217.14mean
$166
$255

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $181.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.6%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202647d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%)
Thin upside margin: 7.6%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.8
P/E (Fwd)18.3
Mkt Cap$36.8B
EV/EBITDA18.4
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE23.2%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.08
Dividend3.20%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.62bullish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$80-56.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMcLane Company, Inc.27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customer, McLane Company, Inc., accounted for approximately 27% of our consolidated net sales in 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Andrew Archambault, President US, leaving the company effective May 1, 2026. No reason cited. Company has begun a search for his replacement; no successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
2.1
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 47d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $173.75Resistance $200.00

Price Targets

$170
$195
A.Upside+7.6%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (47d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $181.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.6%. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $195.42 (+7.6%), stop $170.28 (−6.7%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HSY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $195.42 (+7.6% upside). Target $195.42 (+7.6%), stop $170.28 (−6.7%), A.R:R 1.2:1. Stop-loss: $170.28.

What are the risks of investing in HSY?

Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is HSY overvalued or undervalued?

The Hershey Company trades at a P/E of 33.8 (forward 18.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HSY?

29 analysts cover HSY with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $217.

What does The Hershey Company do?The Hershey Company is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America with more than $12 billion in annual...

The Hershey Company is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, selling confectionery, salty snacks, and international products under 85+ brand names through North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International segments. McLane Company accounted for approximately 27% of consolidated net sales in 2025, serving as primary distributor to Walmart and convenience channels. International operations represented 12.3% of net sales.

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