Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.07
HSY · Why this verdict
Why The Hershey (HSY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.7 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 3.0 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.7 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 140% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
| erm sentiment | 6.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 21%
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $105,686,996 (0.282% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.9 |
| days to cover | 5.4 |
| volatility | 4.3 |
| put call | 9.8 |
| implied vol | 6.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸Above max pain $130
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 315.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:52d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.41
Upside
+9.3%
Downside
6.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 8.2; weakest: Momentum at 1.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.2, Growth at 7.6, and Catalyst at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.3, Insider at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.41 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.