Mondelez's quality has slipped below the minimum investment threshold — with no identifiable competitive moat and volume flowing out of the stock against a flat moving-average slope — while the most recent earnings quarter missed consensus by approximately 30%, breaking three consecutive beats; together these signals point to a deteriorating risk profile at a price where only 2.5% upside to resistance offers insufficient reward.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Deterioration Falling Obv↓Deteriorating
- Quality Below Threshold No Moat→Stable
- Recent Earnings Miss Breaks Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 4, 2026
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Confectioners
Wait for pullback to $58.00. At $61.87 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $58.00 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
Mondelez International sells snack foods across five categories (biscuits, chocolate, gum, beverages, cheese) in over 150 countries through brands including Oreo, Ritz, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Clif Bar, and Toblerone, generating global net revenues of $38.5 billion in 2025.... Read more
Wait for pullback to $58.00. At $61.87 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $58.00 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Mondelez International, Inc.
About Mondelez International, Inc.
Mondelez International generated $38.5 billion in net revenues in 2025, with chocolate, biscuits, and baked snacks as the core categories sold through 145 manufacturing and processing facilities across 49 countries. The company employs approximately 91,000 people globally — roughly 12,000 in the United States and 79,000 outside — and sells in over 150 countries through four geographic segments (North America, Europe, AMEA, Latin America). Net earnings totaled $2.5 billion in 2025; 75.8% of net revenues came from outside the United States, up from 74.0% in 2024.
Mondelez earns revenue through branded volume sales across five product categories: biscuits and baked snacks (Oreo, Ritz, LU, Clif Bar, Tate's Bake Shop), chocolate (Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone), gum and candy, beverages, and cheese and grocery. Products reach consumers through supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms. No single customer accounted for 10% or more of net revenues in 2025, reflecting broad retail distribution without channel concentration. Input cost exposure is material: the company purchases large quantities of cocoa, dairy, wheat, edible oils, sugar, flavoring agents, and nuts. In 2025, commodity cost pressure was driven primarily by soaring cocoa bean prices; the company responded through hedging, pricing actions, and manufacturing cost control, though the 10-K acknowledges hedging strategies may not protect against increases in inputs like dairy where hedging is limited.
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Cocoa represents the most acute commodity risk: the 10-K notes that 2025 saw 'soaring commodity prices (especially for cocoa beans)' contributed to higher aggregate costs, driven by crop disruptions in West Africa that are potentially exacerbated by climate change. Separately, Mondelez's Russia operations accounted for 3.7% of 2025 consolidated net revenues; the company has suspended advertising spending and new capital investment in Russia, and the 10-K identifies the risk that Russian assets may become impaired or operations deconsolidated depending on how the war in Ukraine evolves.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Confectioners
From Mondelez International, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Mondelez International, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Mondelez International Inc. Cl A stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Mondelez International Inc. Cl A stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - marketwatch.com — marketwatch.com negative
- NEWS Mondelez: Trading At Attractive Levels For Long-Term Buyers (NASDAQ:MDLZ) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Mondelez International (Nasdaq:MDLZ) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street positive
- NEWS Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) Stock Up 4.0% and Still Underv - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $58.00. At $61.87 the A.R:R is 0.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $58.00 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $62.18 (+0.5%), stop $55.60 (−11.3%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $62.18 (+0.5% upside). Target $62.18 (+0.5%), stop $55.60 (−11.3%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $55.60.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).
Mondelez International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
31 analysts cover MDLZ with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $69.
What does Mondelez International, Inc. do?Mondelez International sells snack foods across five categories (biscuits, chocolate, gum, beverages, cheese) in over...
Mondelez International sells snack foods across five categories (biscuits, chocolate, gum, beverages, cheese) in over 150 countries through brands including Oreo, Ritz, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Clif Bar, and Toblerone, generating global net revenues of $38.5 billion in 2025. The company operates 145 principal manufacturing facilities across 49 countries with approximately 91,000 employees; 75.8% of 2025 net revenues came from outside the United States.