A packaged-foods company with declining revenue, a quality profile below the minimum investment threshold, and the stock trading in overbought territory (RSI 86) above its near-term technical ceiling — with an unfavorable risk/reward — presents a setup that argues for exiting or avoiding the position, despite a recent three-quarter earnings beat streak.
Thesis pillars
- Overbought Price Above Resistance↓Deteriorating
- Revenue Contraction Headwind→Stable
- Quality Below Investment Threshold→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Dec 5, 2025
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. At $20.61, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
Hormel Foods processes and markets branded food products—including Planters, SPAM, Jennie-O, and Skippy—through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments, generating more than $12 billion in annual revenue. Walmart represented 15.6% of consolidated gross sales in fiscal... Read more
Sell if holding. At $20.61, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
About Hormel Foods Corporation
About Hormel Foods Corporation
Hormel Foods generated more than $12 billion in annual revenue in fiscal 2025; Walmart Inc. and its subsidiaries represented 15.6% of consolidated gross sales, and the top five customers collectively 38%. Three segments—Retail, Foodservice, and International—distribute Planters, SPAM, Jennie-O, and Skippy to grocery, club, foodservice, and international channels. Approximately 20,000 employees were on staff at October 26, 2025, with over 90% in the United States.
Hormel earns branded revenue primarily from pork and turkey products, with animal proteins remaining the core input. The company takes a balanced approach to pork sourcing—combining internal facility purchases at its Austin, Minnesota processing plant, long-term supply agreements, and spot market contracts—while raising the majority of its turkeys internally. Turkey production cost is subject to feed grain volatility; Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza was detected in the turkey supply chain in both fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025. Commodity hedges including futures, swaps, and options partially mitigate short-term price swings but cannot fully offset sustained market moves. The Retail and Foodservice segments face competition from other pork and turkey processors, national brands, private-label producers, and plant-based protein alternatives. Advertising and trade promotion support shelf placement across retail, club, drug, and e-commerce channels.
Show full overview
Walmart's 15.6% share of consolidated gross sales in fiscal 2025—spanning both the Retail and International segments—makes it the company's most concentrated single commercial relationship. The top-five customer group at approximately 38% of gross sales means that a pricing or assortment dispute with any top customer could adversely affect that segment's results, per the 10-K. Separately, the fiscal 2025 impairment of the Planters trade name by $59.1 million and the Chi-Chi's trade name by $2.9 million signal brand-equity erosion in the snacks category, adding pricing-power risk to the existing customer concentration.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From Hormel Foods Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Hormel Foods Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Hormel Foods Earnings: What To Look For From HRL - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Fidelity National Financial Inc. Makes New $16.38 Million Investment in Hormel Foods Corporation $HRL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Hormel Foods stock holds steady as new CFO appointment precedes Q3 2026 earnings - Ad-hoc-news.de — Ad-hoc-news.de neutral
- NEWS Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL): What Could Its Scheduled Update Reveal? - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media neutral
- NEWS Kinloch Capital LLC Makes New $4.90 Million Investment in Hormel Foods Corporation $HRL - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerWalmart16%10-K Item 1: 'Sales to the Company's largest customer, Walmart ... accounted for 15.6 percent of consolidated gross sales'
- MEDIUMCustomertop five customers38%10-K Item 1: 'The Company's top five customers collectively represented approximately 38 percent of consolidated gross sales less returns and allowances during fiscal 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -2.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $20.61, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 70. Prior stop was $19.73. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $22.02 (+6.9% upside). Prior stop was $19.73. Stop-loss: $19.73.
Thin upside margin: 6.9%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Weak overall score: 4.3/10.
Hormel Foods Corporation trades at a P/E of 32.7 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover HRL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $25.
What does Hormel Foods Corporation do?Hormel Foods processes and markets branded food products—including Planters, SPAM, Jennie-O, and Skippy—through Retail,...
Hormel Foods processes and markets branded food products—including Planters, SPAM, Jennie-O, and Skippy—through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments, generating more than $12 billion in annual revenue. Walmart represented 15.6% of consolidated gross sales in fiscal 2025, with the top five customers accounting for approximately 38%; the company employs approximately 20,000 people, with over 90% in the United States.