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HRLHormel Foods CorporationSell4.2·$23.64+0.08%
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Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.64: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, operating through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments with brands including SPAM, Planters, Skippy, Jennie-O, and Applegate. McLane Company (distributor to Walmart,... Read more

$23.64-0.2% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#26 of 26 Packaged Foods
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield3.63%
IncomeYield4.95%(5y avg 3.21%)Payout137.06%at-risk
Stop $22.16Target $23.59(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$26.50+12.1%8 analysts
$23.59our TP
$23.64price
$26.50mean
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.64: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Hormel Foods Corporation

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202680d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-2.5% upside)
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.8
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$13.0B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn3.8%
ROE5.8%
Rev Growth-2.9%
Beta0.34
Dividend4.95%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.10bearish
IV44%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
1.0
Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
3.0

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
1.0
Bollinger
1.7
52w Position
5.6

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Roe
1.9
Net Margin
1.9
Roa
3.1
Moat
3.1
Operating Margin
4.4
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
6.8
Fcf Quality
7.0
No competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
82 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $19.70Resistance $24.07

Price Targets

$22
$24
A.Upside-0.2%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.5% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $23.64: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 82. Prior stop was $22.16. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.59 (-0.2% upside). Prior stop was $22.16. Stop-loss: $22.16.

What are the risks of investing in HRL?

Target reached (-2.5% upside); Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0).

Is HRL overvalued or undervalued?

Hormel Foods Corporation trades at a P/E of 27.8 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HRL?

15 analysts cover HRL with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Hormel Foods Corporation do?Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, operating through Retail,...

Hormel Foods is a global branded food company with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, operating through Retail, Foodservice, and International segments with brands including SPAM, Planters, Skippy, Jennie-O, and Applegate. McLane Company (distributor to Walmart, convenience stores, drug stores) accounted for approximately 27% of consolidated net sales in fiscal 2025. The top five customers collectively represented approximately 38% of consolidated gross sales.

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