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Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance

Wait for pullback to $30.45. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.72. Engine's entry $30.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away).

Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in gross premiums written in 2025, operating via Lloyd's Syndicate 4000 and HIDAC (International segment, 52% of GPW) and Hamilton Re in Bermuda (48% of GPW). Investment returns... Read more

$31.72+8.5% A.UpsideScore 7.1/10#1 of 5 Insurance - Reinsurance
Entry $30.45(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $28.81Target $33.05(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1Setup A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$33.29+4.9%7 analysts
$33.05our TP
$31.72price
$33.29mean
$27
$38

Wait for pullback to $30.45. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.72. Engine's entry $30.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-9.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong overall score: 7.1/10
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.6% away)
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.9
P/E (Fwd)6.9
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA2.5
Profit Mgn19.8%
ROE32.6%
Rev Growth29.4%
Beta0.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV64%elevated
Max Pain$25-21.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of intermediaries
    10-K Item 1A: 'we rely on a limited number of intermediaries for a significant portion of our business'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-02Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Hamilton Re entered new Investment Agreement with Two Sigma Hamilton Fund on April 1, 2026, committing minimum $1.8 billion or 60% of net tangible assets. Replaces prior 2023 Commitment Agreement.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior Commitment Agreement with Two Sigma dated July 1, 2023 (as amended January 1, 2025) terminated and replaced by new Investment Agreement effective April 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Marc Roston designated as new Magnitude Investor board designee effective February 20, 2026, replacing H. Hawes Bostic III. Departure not related to any disagreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.06Resistance $33.72

Price Targets

$29
$30
$33
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R-1.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.6%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $30.45. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $31.72. Engine's entry $30.45 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Fundamentals strong but target reached (-9.0% upside). Wait for pullback. Target $33.05 (+4.2%), stop $28.81 (−10.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 7.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $33.05 (+8.5% upside). Target $33.05 (+4.2%), stop $28.81 (−10.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $28.81.

What are the risks of investing in HG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.6% away); Leverage penalty (D/E 5.6): -1.5.

Is HG overvalued or undervalued?

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 5.9 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HG?

15 analysts cover HG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. do?Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in gross premiums...

Hamilton Insurance Group is a global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in gross premiums written in 2025, operating via Lloyd's Syndicate 4000 and HIDAC (International segment, 52% of GPW) and Hamilton Re in Bermuda (48% of GPW). Investment returns are generated through a unique relationship with Two Sigma's TS Hamilton Fund.

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