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HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.Hold6.3·$30.90+1.28%
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Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. (HG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsurance

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Hamilton Insurance Group is a Bermuda-based global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in 2025 gross premiums written through Hamilton Global Specialty (International segment, 52% of GPW) and Hamilton Re (Bermuda segment, 48% of GPW). Investment returns... Read more

$30.90+3.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 5 Insurance - Reinsurance
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield17.43%
Stop $29.32Target $32.05(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$34.14+10.5%7 analysts
$32.05our TP
$30.90price
$34.14mean
$27
$38

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.0
P/E (Fwd)6.4
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA2.1
Profit Mgn21.7%
ROE33.7%
Rev Growth-2.2%
Beta0.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.20bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$25-19.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyTwo Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund37%
    10-K Item 1: 'As of December 31, 2025, Two Sigma manages $2.2 billion, or 37%, of our total invested assets, via our investment in the TS Hamilton Fund.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-06Item 5.02LOW
    Peter W. Wilson elected as new director at Hamilton's 2026 Annual General Meeting (May 5, 2026); appointed to Technology, Nominating and Governance, and Underwriting and Risk Committees. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 1.01MEDIUM
    Hamilton Re entered new Investment Agreement with Two Sigma on April 1, 2026, replacing prior Commitment Agreement. New minimum commitment: lesser of $1.8B or 60% of Group net tangible assets; establishes two-tier withdrawal structure with 55-day and 6-month notice periods.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Prior Commitment Agreement dated July 1, 2023 (amended Jan 1, 2025) with Two Sigma terminated and superseded by new Investment Agreement effective April 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-25Item 5.02LOW
    Marc N. Roston succeeded H. Hawes Bostic III as Magnitude Investor's shareholder-appointed director effective Feb 20, 2026. Bostic's departure not related to any disagreement. Roston joins Investments and Technology Committees.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $28.43Resistance $32.70

Price Targets

$29
$32
A.Upside+3.7%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.90, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $32.05 (+3.7%), stop $29.32 (−5.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $32.05 (+3.7% upside). Target $32.05 (+3.7%), stop $29.32 (−5.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $29.32.

What are the risks of investing in HG?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Two Sigma / TS Hamilton Fund (37.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.4): -1.5.

Is HG overvalued or undervalued?

Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 6.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HG?

16 analysts cover HG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $34.

What does Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd. do?Hamilton Insurance Group is a Bermuda-based global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in...

Hamilton Insurance Group is a Bermuda-based global specialty insurance and reinsurance company with $2.9 billion in 2025 gross premiums written through Hamilton Global Specialty (International segment, 52% of GPW) and Hamilton Re (Bermuda segment, 48% of GPW). Investment returns are supplemented by Two Sigma managing $2.2 billion (37%) of total invested assets through the dedicated TS Hamilton Fund.

Related stocks: SPNT (SiriusPoint Ltd.) · RNR (RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.) · RGA (Reinsurance Group of America, I) · EG (Everest Group, Ltd.)
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