Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.09
- ▸Attractively valued
HG · Why this verdict
Why Hamilton Insurance Group (HG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.0 |
| Gross margin | 4.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Strong margins: 22%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 2.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,217,230 (0.073% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.0 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.7 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $25
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.39
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.7; weakest: Insider at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Catalyst at 7.5, and Quality at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 4.2, Peer rank at 4.8, and Momentum at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.39 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.