Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
- ▸Attractively valued
HDL · Why this verdict
Why SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING (HDL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is attractively valued after its recent decline, with a forward price/earnings multiple of 13.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.16, both explicitly flagged as attractive. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap should close as shares recover toward the analyst target, where upside is currently estimated near 24%. | →Stable |
| CounterConsecutive earnings misses over the last two reported quarters raise the risk that estimates keep resetting lower, which would erode today's apparent cheapness. | ||
The underlying business converts earnings into cash exceptionally well, with free cash flow running at 189% of net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signaling fundamental health. Quality breakdown | Cash conversion should stay well above 100% of net income and the Piotroski score should hold near its current strong level over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterConsecutive earnings misses and a confirmed technical downtrend suggest underlying momentum in the business may be softening even if trailing cash-conversion metrics still look strong. | ||
Shares are in a confirmed technical downtrend, trading below the 200-day moving average with a 30-day moving-average slope of -5.7% and an RSI near capitulation levels at 26, which triggered a hard block on new buying. Momentum breakdown | For the setup to repair, price would need to reclaim the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope would need to turn positive. | →Stable |
| CounterThe favorable risk/reward math, roughly 24% upside to target versus about 5% downside to the stop, argues the selloff may already be overdone, and a reversal could happen quickly given the small market cap. | ||
Earnings results have been volatile and inconsistent, with two beats and two misses over the last four quarters, including a 61.5% miss in the most recent quarter. Earnings | The beat/miss ratio should improve toward more consistent beats, with surprise magnitude narrowing rather than swinging by tens of percent each quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise over the period is still positive at roughly 22%, driven by an outsized 150% beat, suggesting the business can still deliver upside surprises despite the recent miss. | ||
The engine flags a favorable risk/reward setup, with upside to target around 24% versus roughly 5% downside to the stop, a mispricing partly attributed to the stock's small market capitalization keeping it below institutional reach. Edge rationale | If the mispricing closes, either through increased institutional attention or technical repair, the favorable reward-to-risk skew should be realized as price appreciation toward the target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe position-sizing framework recommends avoiding new capital here despite the favorable ratio, since the confirmed downtrend and death-cross signal override the raw asymmetry math. | ||
The stock is attractively valued after its recent decline, with a forward price/earnings multiple of 13.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.16, both explicitly flagged as attractive.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap should close as shares recover toward the analyst target, where upside is currently estimated near 24%.
CounterConsecutive earnings misses over the last two reported quarters raise the risk that estimates keep resetting lower, which would erode today's apparent cheapness.
The underlying business converts earnings into cash exceptionally well, with free cash flow running at 189% of net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 signaling fundamental health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash conversion should stay well above 100% of net income and the Piotroski score should hold near its current strong level over the next several quarters.
CounterConsecutive earnings misses and a confirmed technical downtrend suggest underlying momentum in the business may be softening even if trailing cash-conversion metrics still look strong.
Shares are in a confirmed technical downtrend, trading below the 200-day moving average with a 30-day moving-average slope of -5.7% and an RSI near capitulation levels at 26, which triggered a hard block on new buying.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- For the setup to repair, price would need to reclaim the 200-day moving average and the moving-average slope would need to turn positive.
CounterThe favorable risk/reward math, roughly 24% upside to target versus about 5% downside to the stop, argues the selloff may already be overdone, and a reversal could happen quickly given the small market cap.
Earnings results have been volatile and inconsistent, with two beats and two misses over the last four quarters, including a 61.5% miss in the most recent quarter.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat/miss ratio should improve toward more consistent beats, with surprise magnitude narrowing rather than swinging by tens of percent each quarter.
CounterThe average surprise over the period is still positive at roughly 22%, driven by an outsized 150% beat, suggesting the business can still deliver upside surprises despite the recent miss.
The engine flags a favorable risk/reward setup, with upside to target around 24% versus roughly 5% downside to the stop, a mispricing partly attributed to the stock's small market capitalization keeping it below institutional reach.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- If the mispricing closes, either through increased institutional attention or technical repair, the favorable reward-to-risk skew should be realized as price appreciation toward the target.
CounterThe position-sizing framework recommends avoiding new capital here despite the favorable ratio, since the confirmed downtrend and death-cross signal override the raw asymmetry math.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Super Hi International screens cheap and cash-generative even after a sharp technical breakdown, but a confirmed downtrend and back-to-back earnings misses argue for waiting on a repair rather than chasing the favorable headline risk/reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 2.6 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 189% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.3 |
| quality rank | 3.4 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 1.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 9.8 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:4.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:56d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.73
Upside
+23.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -42% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:4.7>=1.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.5; weakest: Momentum at 4.1. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.5, Value at 8.4, and Growth at 8.0; the weakest are Momentum at 4.1, Quality at 4.9, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Post Selloff Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings multiple rises above 20x from the current 13.5x, eliminating the valuation discount.
- P2Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income ratio falls below 100% from the current 189% level.
- P3Confirmed Technical Breakdown
Trip ifRelative strength index rises above 50, recovering from the current capitulation-level reading of 26.
- P4Volatile Earnings Track Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays above 0% (a beat) for 2 consecutive quarters, breaking the alternating beat-miss pattern.
- P5Small Cap Mispricing Asymmetry
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 4.81 reading, as downside risk catches up to remaining upside.