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GVAGranite Construction IncorporatSell5.9·$141.92+0.94%
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Granite Construction Incorporat (GVA) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality.

Granite Construction is one of the largest US civil contractors and construction materials producers, operating in 17 states via Construction and Materials segments; Caltrans was the largest customer at 10.1% of 2025 total revenue ($446.6M). ~70% of Construction Segment revenue... Read more

$141.92+2.4% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield2.10%
IncomeYield0.37%(5y avg 1.04%)Payout14.17%sustainable
Stop $133.05Target $145.46(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$167.20+17.8%5 analysts
$145.46our TP
$141.92price
$167.20mean
$185

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%)
Target reached (2.4% upside)
Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.3
P/E (Fwd)18.6
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA15.7
Profit Mgn4.0%
ROE20.0%
Rev Growth30.4%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.37%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV60%elevated
Max Pain$115-19.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerCaltrans10%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue recognized from contracts with Caltrans during the years ended December 31, 2025 ... represented $446.6 million (10.1% of total revenue)'
  • HIGHCustomerfederal, state and local government agencies70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 70% of our Construction Segment revenue in 2025 was derived from contracts funded by federal, state and local government agencies'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Company entered Exchange Agreements to retire $100M of 3.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 for cash/stock consideration; total consideration based on 15-day VWAP from Feb 18, 2026 (all cash if VWAP ≤$140/share). Amendment corrected prior mislabeling as Item 1.03.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
2.0
Roa
3.5
Current Ratio
4.3
Fcf Quality
5.3
Moat
6.0
Roe
6.7
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spot8K FLAG 1.02Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $126.28Resistance $145.00

Price Targets

$133
$145
A.Upside+2.5%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $141.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 17%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $133.05. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $145.46 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $133.05. Stop-loss: $133.05.

What are the risks of investing in GVA?

Concentration risk — Customer: federal, state and local government agencies (70.0%); Target reached (2.4% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is GVA overvalued or undervalued?

Granite Construction Incorporat trades at a P/E of 38.3 (forward 18.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GVA?

8 analysts cover GVA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $167.

What does Granite Construction Incorporat do?Granite Construction is one of the largest US civil contractors and construction materials producers, operating in 17...

Granite Construction is one of the largest US civil contractors and construction materials producers, operating in 17 states via Construction and Materials segments; Caltrans was the largest customer at 10.1% of 2025 total revenue ($446.6M). ~70% of Construction Segment revenue comes from government agencies; Committed and Awarded Projects totaled $7.0B at Dec 31, 2025.

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