Granite Construction is delivering exceptional revenue and earnings growth — 30% top-line expansion and a four-quarter beat streak averaging 40% above consensus — against a technically strong backdrop; the case for new capital is constrained by a quality score below the minimum investable threshold, a thin 2.9% upside to target, and a 70% customer concentration in government agencies that creates a single-source dependency risk.
Thesis pillars
- Government Customer Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Exceptional Revenue And Earnings Growth→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026
Granite Construction Incorporat (GVA) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.67: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.
Granite Construction delivers civil infrastructure construction and construction materials in the U.S. through Construction and Materials segments. The company carried $7.0 billion in committed and awarded projects at December 31, 2025, with ~70% of Construction segment revenue... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.67: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost earnings 0.60, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Granite Construction Incorporat
About Granite Construction Incorporat
Granite Construction carried $7.0 billion in committed and awarded projects (CAP) at December 31, 2025, up from $5.3 billion a year earlier, with roughly $3.0 billion of unearned revenue expected to convert during 2026. Government-funded work represented approximately 70% of Construction segment revenues in 2025, and the total workforce stood at approximately 5,800 employees—2,500 salaried and 3,300 hourly—as of December 31, 2025.
Granite earns revenue primarily through fixed unit price contracts (56.9% of unearned revenue at December 31, 2025) and fixed price contracts (34.6%), with the balance in other types. The Construction segment spans roads, bridges, airports, tunnels, dams, water, solar, and federal civil work across vertically integrated home markets in 11 states—including California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and Texas—plus national Tunnel, Federal, Industrial & Energy, and Layne divisions. The Materials segment produces aggregates, asphalt concrete, and liquid asphalt for internal use and third-party sale, with owned aggregate reserves and processing plants providing supply security. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) was the largest single customer at 10.1% of 2025 total revenue ($446.6 million); no other customer exceeded 10%. Commodity inputs—diesel fuel, liquid asphalt, steel, and cement—are subject to price volatility and tariff-related increases, while craft labor is partially covered by collective bargaining agreements at four wholly-owned subsidiaries.
Show full overview
Approximately 70% of Granite's Construction segment revenue in 2025 came from federal, state, and local government agencies. Caltrans contributed $446.6 million—10.1% of total revenue—down from 14.2% in 2024, illustrating year-to-year variability in state transportation funding releases. Federal contracts may be modified, delayed, or terminated at the government's convenience, and a partial government shutdown or appropriations lapse could delay project awards and slow CAP conversion, which management identifies as a material risk to business and financial condition.
See also: Industrials · Engineering & Construction
From Granite Construction Incorporat's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Granite Construction Incorporat
Latest news
- NEWS Granite Construction (GVA) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Granite Construction (GVA) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Granite Construction (GVA) Q1 Earnings Report Preview: What To Look For - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Here's Why We Think Granite Construction (NYSE:GVA) Might Deserve Your Attention Today - 富途牛牛 — 富途牛牛 neutral
- NEWS Q4 Earnings Highlights: Granite Construction (NYSE:GVA) Vs The Rest Of The Construction and Maintenance Services Stocks — Yahoo Finance neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:33Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomergovernment agencies70%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 70% of our construction revenue was funded by federal, state and local government agencies and authorities'
- LOWCustomerCaltrans10%10-K Item 1: 'Revenue recognized from contracts with Caltrans during the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023 represented $446.6 million (10.1% of total revenue)'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.3%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $111.67: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 4.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 15%; Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Prior stop was $104.69. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $148.05 (+32.6% upside). Prior stop was $104.69. Stop-loss: $104.69.
Concentration risk — Customer: government agencies (70.0%); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
Granite Construction Incorporat trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 14.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover GVA with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $170.
What does Granite Construction Incorporat do?Granite Construction delivers civil infrastructure construction and construction materials in the U.S. through...
Granite Construction delivers civil infrastructure construction and construction materials in the U.S. through Construction and Materials segments. The company carried $7.0 billion in committed and awarded projects at December 31, 2025, with ~70% of Construction segment revenue from government contracts. Caltrans was the largest single customer at 10.1% of 2025 total revenue.