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STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.Hold5.6·$860.04+2.56%
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Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Engineering & Construction

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $860.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Sterling Infrastructure is a construction contractor with three segments: E-Infrastructure (site development and electrical for data centers, semiconductor fabs, manufacturing), Transportation (highways, bridges, airports), and Building Solutions (residential/commercial... Read more

$860.04+14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#11 of 30 Engineering & Construction
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.32%
Stop $798.86Target $985.57(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$941.17+9.4%6 analysts
$985.57our TP
$860.04price
$941.17mean
$1000

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $860.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 3, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Wide economic moat
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)76.9
P/E (Fwd)37.1
Mkt Cap$26.4B
EV/EBITDA45.1
Profit Mgn12.0%
ROE36.7%
Rev Growth91.6%
Beta1.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.31bearish
IV105%elevated
Max Pain$150-82.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomertop-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment)58%
    10-K Item 1: 'The top four state DOTs in each year, accounted for 58% of the segment's revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-4 Building Solutions customers45%
    10-K Item 1: 'The top four customers in each year, including their respective affiliates, accounted for 45% of the segment's revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMCustomertop-4 E-Infrastructure customers27%
    10-K Item 1: 'The top four customers in each year, accounted for 27% of the segment's revenue in 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
1.2
Forward Pe
2.9
Ps
4.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.1
Forward P/E: 37.1xPEG: 1.47

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.3
Rsi
5.0
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $702.51Resistance $1005.68

Price Targets

$799
$986
A.Upside+14.6%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.7% upside)
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-03 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is STRL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $860.04, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $985.57 (+14.6%), stop $798.86 (−7.7%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the STRL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $985.57 (+14.7% upside). Target $985.57 (+14.6%), stop $798.86 (−7.7%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $798.86.

What are the risks of investing in STRL?

Concentration risk — Customer: top-4 state DOTs (Transportation segment) (58.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Is STRL overvalued or undervalued?

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. trades at a P/E of 76.9 (forward 37.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about STRL?

15 analysts cover STRL with a consensus score of 4.5/5. Average price target: $941.

What does Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. do?Sterling Infrastructure is a construction contractor with three segments: E-Infrastructure (site development and...

Sterling Infrastructure is a construction contractor with three segments: E-Infrastructure (site development and electrical for data centers, semiconductor fabs, manufacturing), Transportation (highways, bridges, airports), and Building Solutions (residential/commercial concrete). $3.01B backlog at December 31, 2025; operates primarily in Southern, Northeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Rocky Mountain US.

Related stocks: DY (Dycom Industries, Inc.) · ROAD (Construction Partners, Inc.) · AGX (Argan, Inc.) · J (Jacobs Solutions Inc.) · ECG (Everus Construction Group, Inc.)
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