Value
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
GVA · Why this verdict
Why Granite Construction Incorporat (GVA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.7 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $6,748,897 (0.109% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.8 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.6 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.0 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 5.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 4.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 15%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 37.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02
Reward-to-Risk
0.27
Upside
+2.9%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.33>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.6, and Momentum at 7.3; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Quality at 3.8, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.27 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.