A pharmacy services provider with excellent cash conversion (126% of net income), 27% return on equity, three consecutive quarterly earnings beats, and growing institutional ownership trades just below its near-term technical target with only 0.5% headroom remaining—creating a favorable long-term quality picture but an unfavorable near-term entry geometry at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- High Quality Cash Conversion→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak Consistency↑Improving
- Price At Technical Ceiling→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 11, 2026
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc (GRDN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALF and BHF residents; Thin upside margin: 7.6%.
Guardian Pharmacy Services operates 61 pharmacies serving 205,000 residents in 8,400 long-term care facilities across 38 states, generating over two-thirds of revenue from assisted living and behavioral health facilities. Revenue comes from prescription dispensing reimbursed by... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALF and BHF residents; Thin upside margin: 7.6%. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc
About Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc
Guardian Pharmacy Services' 61 pharmacies — 54 full-service — served approximately 205,000 residents across about 8,400 long-term care facilities in 38 states at December 31, 2025, generating more than two-thirds of annual revenue from assisted living facilities (ALFs) and behavioral health facilities (BHFs). The U.S. institutional pharmacy market was estimated at approximately $24.3 billion for 2025 by IBISWorld, with Guardian claiming roughly 13.0% national market share in ALF and memory care settings.
Guardian earns revenue through prescription dispensing reimbursed by Medicare Part D, Medicaid, and commercial health plans, adjudicating every prescription and assisting residents in optimizing pharmacy benefit plan coverage. The company deploys over 100 automated robotic dispensing machines across its pharmacy network, integrates with facility Electronic Medication Administration Records (EMARs), and offers compliance packaging, pharmacist consultations, and clinical analytics programs under the GuardianShield platform. The competitive landscape includes two national providers historically focused on skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), several regional providers, and over 1,200 independent pharmacies. The ALF sector presents specific operational challenges that favor specialized providers: residents typically carry multiple pharmacy benefit plans with distinct formularies, facilities often lack on-site medical directors, and residents have the right to choose their own pharmacy.
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Reimbursement risk is the primary financial exposure. Guardian's revenue depends substantially on Medicare Part D and Medicaid rates, which are subject to federal and state rate-setting cycles. The 10-K identifies ongoing government and private efforts to limit pharmacy reimbursements as a material risk factor, and flags consolidation of managed care organizations as a structural headwind that could alter payor agreement terms unfavorably. With operations spanning 38 states, the company is exposed to varied state Medicaid fee schedules; any compression in reimbursement rates paid by health plan payors could reduce revenue per prescription without a corresponding reduction in dispensing cost.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc
Latest news
- NEWS GRDN|Guardian Pharmacy Services Inc|Price:41.000|Chg%:-0.860 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS GRDN|Guardian Pharmacy Services Inc|Price:40.875|Chg%:+1.345 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS GRDN|Guardian Pharmacy Services Inc|Price:41.000|Chg%:-0.860 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Truist raises Guardian Pharmacy stock price target on growth outlook - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerALF and BHF residents10-K Item 1: 'More than two-thirds of our annual revenue for each of the past three years has been generated from residents of ALFs and BHFs'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: ALF and BHF residents; Thin upside margin: 7.6%. Chart setup: RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $43.38 (+7.6%), stop $37.68 (−7.0%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $43.38 (+7.6% upside). Analyst target $43.38 (+7.6%), stop $37.68 (−7.0%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $37.68.
Concentration risk — Customer: ALF and BHF residents; Thin upside margin: 7.6%; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc trades at a P/E of 39.2 (forward 28.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
13 analysts cover GRDN with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $50.
What does Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc do?Guardian Pharmacy Services operates 61 pharmacies serving 205,000 residents in 8,400 long-term care facilities across...
Guardian Pharmacy Services operates 61 pharmacies serving 205,000 residents in 8,400 long-term care facilities across 38 states, generating over two-thirds of revenue from assisted living and behavioral health facilities. Revenue comes from prescription dispensing reimbursed by Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial health plans. The company holds approximately 13.0% national market share in ALF and memory care pharmacy.