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Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $184.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%).

Tenet Healthcare operates 50 acute care hospitals and 533 ambulatory surgery centers (via USPI) across eight states, organized into Hospital Operations and Ambulatory Care segments. Revenue is derived primarily from managed care payers (~70% of Hospital Operations net patient... Read more

$184.28+31.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Stop $167.36Target $236.61(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.2:1
Analyst target$262.90+42.7%21 analysts
$236.61our TP
$184.28price
$262.90mean
$288

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $184.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%)
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.2
P/E (Fwd)10.1
Mkt Cap$15.5B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn7.8%
ROE30.3%
Rev Growth11.7%
Beta
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C4.57bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$270+46.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomermanaged care payers70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 70%, or $9.696 billion, of our net patient service revenues...was attributable to managed care payers'
  • HIGHCustomertop 10 managed care payers69%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our top 10 managed care payers generated 69% of our managed care net patient service revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Paola Arbour (EVP and CIO) to retire effective December 31, 2026; will remain employed part-time through April 1, 2028 for transition services. No successor named. Retirement agreement includes continued vesting of equity and participation in benefits.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-30Item 5.02MEDIUM
    R. Scott Ramsey (SVP & Controller/Principal Accounting Officer) retiring April 30, 2026. Successor named: J. Michael Grooms appointed SVP & Controller effective April 6, 2026, to become PAO effective May 1, 2026. Previously served as Chief Accounting Officer at Lifepoint Health.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R 3.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $168.11Resistance $206.47

Price Targets

$167
$237
A.Upside+28.4%
A.R:R3.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is THC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $184.28, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $236.61 (+28.4%), stop $167.36 (−10.1%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the THC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $236.61 (+31.5% upside). Target $236.61 (+28.4%), stop $167.36 (−10.1%), A.R:R 3.2:1. Stop-loss: $167.36.

What are the risks of investing in THC?

Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Is THC overvalued or undervalued?

Tenet Healthcare Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.2 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about THC?

28 analysts cover THC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $263.

What does Tenet Healthcare Corporation do?Tenet Healthcare operates 50 acute care hospitals and 533 ambulatory surgery centers (via USPI) across eight states,...

Tenet Healthcare operates 50 acute care hospitals and 533 ambulatory surgery centers (via USPI) across eight states, organized into Hospital Operations and Ambulatory Care segments. Revenue is derived primarily from managed care payers (~70% of Hospital Operations net patient revenues), with Medicare at 15% and Medicaid at 11%; Tenet also provides revenue cycle management through Conifer Health Solutions.

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