Tenet Healthcare passed all required investment gates with a 22.4% upside to analyst targets and a favorable 1.86x reward-to-risk ratio, backed by a 4-of-4 earnings beat streak averaging 20.5% above consensus and a free cash flow conversion of 180% of net income — though managed-care payer concentration in 70% of revenue creates a key single-counterparty risk.
Thesis pillars
- Analyst Upside Margin Of Safety→Stable
- Exceptional Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Managed Care Payer Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Wait for pullback to $255.07. Price sits above the model's entry target of $255.07; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%).
Tenet Healthcare operates 50 acute care and specialty hospitals with 12,494 licensed beds across eight states alongside 533 ambulatory surgery centers and 26 surgical hospitals in 37 states, employing nearly 100,000 people. Revenue flows through Hospital Operations (where... Read more
Wait for pullback to $255.07. Price sits above the model's entry target of $255.07; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.90, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About Tenet Healthcare Corporation
About Tenet Healthcare Corporation
Tenet Healthcare Corporation operated 50 acute care and specialty hospitals with 12,494 licensed beds across eight states, alongside USPI's 533 ambulatory surgery centers and 26 surgical hospitals in 37 states at December 31, 2025, employing nearly 100,000 people across both reporting segments. Managed care payers contributed approximately 70 percent, or $9.696 billion, of net patient service revenues for hospitals and related outpatient facilities in the Hospital Operations segment in 2025, with Medicare and Medicaid adding 15 percent and 11 percent, respectively, excluding managed care versions of those programs.
Revenue flows through two segments: Hospital Operations — encompassing acute care hospitals, 132 outpatient centers, and Conifer Health Solutions, which provided revenue cycle management services to approximately 600 Tenet and non-Tenet hospitals — and Ambulatory Care, structured as physician and health-system joint ventures managed by USPI. The top 10 managed care payers generated 69 percent of managed care net patient service revenues in 2025; the 10-K notes that material payment delays or disputes with any significant payer could have a material adverse effect on financial condition and cash flows. Geographic concentration of outpatient facilities is notable: approximately 74 percent of the outpatient centers in the Hospital Operations segment at December 31, 2025 were in Arizona and Texas. Conifer returned to full Tenet ownership in January 2026 following a strategic transaction with CommonSpirit Health, which had held a 23.8 percent interest.
Show full overview
Federal and state policy changes may weigh on Tenet's revenue materially. The Affordable Care Act's enhanced premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025, and rising health insurance premiums are expected to cause a corresponding rise in the uninsured or shift individuals from commercial coverage to government programs beginning in 2026. The Congressional Budget Office anticipates millions of individuals could lose health insurance between now and 2034 once the OBBBA is implemented, which may reduce Medicaid supplemental payments and delay timing of payments to Tenet's facilities. State-mandated minimum wage increases for California healthcare workers effective October 2024, with further annual increases anticipated through 2028, add ongoing pressure to labor costs at the company's California hospitals.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From Tenet Healthcare Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Tenet Healthcare Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Why is Tenet (THC) down 3.2% since last earnings report? - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Tenet Healthcare (THC) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory neutral
- NEWS Unveiling Tenet (THC) Q1 outlook: Wall Street estimates for key metrics - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC) Stock Down 4.3% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 82/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS Is Tenet Healthcare (THC) Fully Priced As Earnings Near? - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:52Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomermanaged care payers70%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 70%, or $9.696 billion, of our net patient service revenues ... was attributable to managed care payers'
- HIGHCustomertop 10 managed care payers69%10-K Item 1A: 'our top 10 managed care payers generated 69% of our managed care net patient service revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicArizona and Texas10-K Item 1: 'Approximately 74% of the outpatient centers in our Hospital Operations segment at December 31, 2025 were in Arizona and Texas'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOWEVP & CIO Paola Arbour entered Retirement Transition Agreement on April 9, 2026; she will retire from her CIO role effective December 31, 2026 and remain employed part-time through April 1, 2028 providing transition services. No successor named for CIO role.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-30Item 5.02LOWSVP & Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) R. Scott Ramsey retirement date shifted to April 30, 2026. Successor J. Michael Grooms appointed SVP & Controller effective April 6, 2026, becoming Principal Accounting Officer May 1, 2026. Previously SVP, Chief Accounting Officer at Lifepoint Health since 2018.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $255.07. Price sits above the model's entry target of $255.07; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%). Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $257.77 reached (−4.0%), stop $244.56 (−9.8%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $257.77 reached (−4.0% from $268.50); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $257.77 reached (−4.0%), stop $244.56 (−9.8%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $244.56.
Concentration risk — Customer: managed care payers (70.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 managed care payers (69.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Tenet Healthcare Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 12.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
28 analysts cover THC with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $286.
What does Tenet Healthcare Corporation do?Tenet Healthcare operates 50 acute care and specialty hospitals with 12,494 licensed beds across eight states alongside...
Tenet Healthcare operates 50 acute care and specialty hospitals with 12,494 licensed beds across eight states alongside 533 ambulatory surgery centers and 26 surgical hospitals in 37 states, employing nearly 100,000 people. Revenue flows through Hospital Operations (where managed care payers account for ~70% of segment net patient service revenues) and the Ambulatory Care segment via USPI's ASC and surgical hospital network.