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CHEChemed CorpSell4.4·$419.31-0.37%
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Chemed Corp (CHE) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. At $419.31, A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 95% of revenue from Medicare and Medicaid (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.; Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (95.0%).

Chemed Corporation operates two segments: VITAS, one of the nation's largest hospice care providers reimbursed on a per-diem basis by Medicare and Medicaid, and Roto-Rooter, a national plumbing, drain, and water restoration services franchise. Over 95% of VITAS net patient... Read more

$419.31+5.2% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#27 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.26%
IncomeYield0.57%(5y avg 0.34%)Payout12.55%sustainable
Stop $403.13Target $441.00(resistance)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst target$446.50+6.5%4 analysts
$441.00our TP
$419.31price
$446.50mean
$400
$500

Sell if holding. At $419.31, A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 95% of revenue from Medicare and Medicaid (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.; Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (95.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and healthcare gov payer hard block. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Chemed Corp

About Chemed Corp

Chemed Corporation's VITAS segment draws over 95% of its net patient service revenue from Medicare and Medicaid payments on a per-diem basis, making it one of the nation's largest hospice care providers in an industry dominated by small, community-based organizations. Roto-Rooter, the company's second segment, provides plumbing, drain cleaning, excavation, and water restoration services to residential and commercial customers across the U.S. A significant portion of VITAS operations are concentrated in Florida, where Medicare patients relocating during winter months generate higher seasonal admissions.

VITAS earns revenue at four levels of Medicare care — Routine Home Care, Continuous Home Care, Inpatient Care, and Respite Care — each reimbursed at distinct per-diem rates that are subject to annual adjustment based primarily on the hospital wage index basket, regionally computed. Approximately 15% to 20% of VITAS days of care are provided to patients residing in nursing homes, where VITAS bills and collects from state Medicaid programs at roughly 95% of the applicable Medicaid nursing home per diem for room and board. VITAS competes with community-based hospice providers, national and regional companies, hospital-based hospice programs, and nursing homes; relatively few barriers to entry exist in many of its markets. Roto-Rooter competes in highly fragmented local and regional markets primarily on advertising, name recognition, emergency availability, and pricing; private equity investment in home services companies, including plumbing, has recently intensified competition.

Show full overview

VITAS's revenue base is structurally tied to Medicare and Medicaid rate-setting, which the 10-K notes is subject to statutory and regulatory changes, including retroactive adjustments and funding reductions. Federal budget deliberations frequently target the hospice benefit specifically for cuts, and reductions to coverage or payment rates — including the elimination of Medicaid room-and-board payments for nursing home patients — could materially reduce Chemed's net patient service revenue and profitability. Certificate of Need laws in states including Florida and California also constrain VITAS's ability to expand capacity, exposing the company to regulatory approval risk when entering new or existing geographic markets.

See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

From Chemed Corp's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 95% of revenue from Medicare and Medicaid (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.
Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (95.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.9
P/E (Fwd)15.6
Mkt Cap$5.6B
EV/EBITDA14.6
Profit Mgn10.2%
ROE25.6%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.54
Dividend0.57%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C7.71bearish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$250-40.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMedicare and Medicaid95%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In excess of 95% of VITAS' net patient service revenue consists of payments from the Medicare and Medicaid programs'
  • MEDIUMGeographicFlorida
    10-K Item 1: 'A significant portion of our VITAS business is operated in the state of Florida'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Rsi
3.5
Ma Position
4.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.9
Revenue Growth
2.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
8.4
Best-in-class margins

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 57.0%
GatesMomentum 2.0<4.5A.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)HEALTHCARE GOV PAYER HARD BLOCKInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $415.60Resistance $450.00

Price Targets

$403
$441
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.5% upside)
! momentum at 2.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $419.31, A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 95% of revenue from Medicare and Medicaid (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.; Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (95.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $403.13. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CHE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $441.00 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $403.13. Stop-loss: $403.13.

What are the risks of investing in CHE?

Healthcare gov-payer cliff: 95% of revenue from Medicare and Medicaid (≥70% threshold). CMS rate-change exposure dominates.; Concentration risk — Customer: Medicare and Medicaid (95.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CHE overvalued or undervalued?

Chemed Corp trades at a P/E of 22.9 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CHE?

8 analysts cover CHE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $447.

What does Chemed Corp do?Chemed Corporation operates two segments: VITAS, one of the nation's largest hospice care providers reimbursed on a...

Chemed Corporation operates two segments: VITAS, one of the nation's largest hospice care providers reimbursed on a per-diem basis by Medicare and Medicaid, and Roto-Rooter, a national plumbing, drain, and water restoration services franchise. Over 95% of VITAS net patient service revenue comes from Medicare and Medicaid; a significant portion of VITAS operations are concentrated in Florida.

Related stocks: THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.) · AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc)
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