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ASTHAstrana Health Inc.Sell6.2·$38.62-3.09%
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Astrana Health Inc. (ASTH) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.62: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company offers care coordination services to patients, families,... Read more

$38.62+3.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#3 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield15.03%
Stop $35.92Target $40.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$46.00+19.1%9 analysts
$40.02our TP
$38.62price
$46.00mean
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.62: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13

Recent Developments — Astrana Health Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)63.3
P/E (Fwd)11.3
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE5.7%
Rev Growth55.6%
Beta0.94
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.02bullish
IV74%elevated
Max Pain$45+16.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.4
Operating Margin
1.2
Roe
1.9
Roa
2.4
Moat
4.9
Current Ratio
5.0
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 952% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $35.99Resistance $40.13

Price Targets

$36
$40
A.Upside+3.6%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ASTH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.62: Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.92. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ASTH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.02 (+3.6% upside). Prior stop was $35.92. Stop-loss: $35.92.

What are the risks of investing in ASTH?

Quality below floor (3.6 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -11.5%), High leverage (D/E 33.0).

Is ASTH overvalued or undervalued?

Astrana Health Inc. trades at a P/E of 63.3 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ASTH?

17 analysts cover ASTH with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Astrana Health Inc. do?Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company...

Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans. Its physician network includes primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. The company serves patients primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization; and non-insured patients. The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.

Related stocks: THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.) · AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · CON (Concentra Group Holdings Parent)
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