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AVAHAveanna Healthcare Holdings IncHold6.3·$6.64-0.60%
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Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc (AVAH) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.2): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc., a diversified home care platform company, provides pediatric and adult healthcare services in the United States. Its patient-centered care delivery platform allows patients to remain in their homes and minimizes the overutilization of high-cost... Read more

$6.64+31.6% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.68%
Stop $6.26Target $8.74(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$10.05+51.4%10 analysts
$8.74our TP
$6.64price
$10.05mean
$13

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202658d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.89)
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 6.2): -1.5
Negative momentum
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.2), Material insider selling (8 sells, 8.58% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.5
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA8.9
Profit Mgn10.4%
ROE368.0%
Rev Growth15.9%
Beta1.93
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV99%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
2.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.0
Obv
10.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 2.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 58d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $6.45Resistance $8.11

Price Targets

$6
$9
A.Upside+31.6%
A.R:R2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (58d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AVAH stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $6.64, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Leverage penalty (D/E 6.2): -1.5; Negative momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 23, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $8.74 (+31.6%), stop $6.26 (−6.1%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVAH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $8.74 (+31.6% upside). Target $8.74 (+31.6%), stop $6.26 (−6.1%), A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $6.26.

What are the risks of investing in AVAH?

Leverage penalty (D/E 6.2): -1.5; Negative momentum; Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 6.2), Material insider selling (8 sells, 8.58% of cap).

Is AVAH overvalued or undervalued?

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc trades at a P/E of 5.5 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AVAH?

17 analysts cover AVAH with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $10.

What does Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc do?Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc., a diversified home care platform company, provides pediatric and adult healthcare...

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc., a diversified home care platform company, provides pediatric and adult healthcare services in the United States. Its patient-centered care delivery platform allows patients to remain in their homes and minimizes the overutilization of high-cost care settings, such as hospitals or skilled nursing facilities. The company operates through three segments: Private Duty Services (PDS), Home Health & Hospice (HHH), and Medical Solutions (MS). The PDS segment offers private duty nursing (PDN) services, which include in-home skilled nursing services to medically complex children and adults; nursing services in school settings in which its caregivers accompany patients to school; services to patients in its pediatric day healthcare centers; and non-clinical care, including support services and personal care services; and in-clinic and home-based therapy services, such as physical, occupational, and speech services. The HHH segment provides home health services, including in-home skilled nursing services; physical, occupational, and speech therapy services; and medical social and aide services, as well as hospice services for patients and their families when a life-limiting illness no longer responds to cure-oriented treatments. The MS segment offers enteral nutrition supplies and other products, including formulas, supplies, and pumps to adults and children delivered on a periodic or as-needed basis. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Related stocks: ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · ARDT (Ardent Health, Inc.) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.) · MD (Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.) · THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation)
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