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FSLYFastly, Inc.Hold5.6·$18.66-1.17%
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Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -13.8%), Material insider selling (29 sells, 0.21% of cap).

Fastly operates an edge cloud platform combining CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing for enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily usage-based from enterprise customers; the top 10 customers generated 32% of 2025 revenue. TikTok was one of its largest... Read more

$18.66+13.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#55 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield4.02%
Stop $17.25Target $20.98(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.9:1
Analyst target$24.11+29.2%9 analysts
$20.98our TP
$18.66price
$24.11mean
$32

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -13.8%), Material insider selling (29 sells, 0.21% of cap). Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and SEC filing concern. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -13.8%), Material insider selling (29 sells, 0.21% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)47.0
Mkt Cap$2.9B
EV/EBITDA-53.8
Profit Mgn-15.8%
ROE-10.7%
Rev Growth19.8%
Beta0.35
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.26bearish
IV96%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our 10 largest customers generated an aggregate of 32% and 33% of our revenue in the trailing 12 months ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
  • LOWCustomersingle affiliated company10%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Affiliated customers that are business units of a single company generated an aggregate of 10% of the Company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 4.01HIGH
    On March 4, 2026, Fastly dismissed Deloitte & Touche LLP as independent auditor and appointed KPMG LLP as replacement for fiscal year 2026. As of the filing date, KPMG had not yet formally accepted the engagement. No disagreement or adverse opinion reported.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.3
Value Rank
3.7
Growth Rank
6.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.7
Gap
4.0
Bollinger
4.2
Support Resistance
5.5
GatesA.R:R 0.9 < 1.5@spotSEC critical: Momentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.70Resistance $22.05

Price Targets

$17
$21
A.Upside+12.4%
A.R:R0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.9 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Critical SEC filing

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FSLY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $18.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -13.8%), Material insider selling (29 sells, 0.21% of cap). Chart setup: RSI 60 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $20.98 (+12.4%), stop $17.25 (−8.2%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FSLY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.98 (+13.1% upside). Target $20.98 (+12.4%), stop $17.25 (−8.2%), A.R:R 0.9:1. Stop-loss: $17.25.

What are the risks of investing in FSLY?

Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -13.8%), Material insider selling (29 sells, 0.21% of cap).

Is FSLY overvalued or undervalued?

Fastly, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 47.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FSLY?

17 analysts cover FSLY with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $24.

What does Fastly, Inc. do?Fastly operates an edge cloud platform combining CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing for...

Fastly operates an edge cloud platform combining CDN, security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing for enterprises globally. Revenue is primarily usage-based from enterprise customers; the top 10 customers generated 32% of 2025 revenue. TikTok was one of its largest customers in 2025.

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