Three consecutive earnings beats — including surprises of 50% and 109% above consensus — combined with strong price momentum and rising volume accumulation offer a compelling near-term setup, but below-average business quality and a 15% short float add meaningful volatility risk that demands disciplined position sizing.
Thesis pillars
- Growth Justified Premium Valuation↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Beat Streak Consistency↑Improving
- Price Momentum Volume Accumulation↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3).
Fastly operates an edge cloud platform for content delivery, application security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing, serving enterprise customers across ecommerce, media, gaming, and financial services globally. Revenue is usage-based; the top 10 customers... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Fastly, Inc.
About Fastly, Inc.
Fastly's top 10 customers generated 32% of revenue in the trailing 12 months ended December 31, 2025, slightly below the 33% recorded in 2024. One affiliated-customer group—business units of a single company—accounted for 10% of 2025 revenue, a share the filing notes could increase as changes in customer corporate structures contribute to further concentration. The company had an accumulated deficit of $1,114.5 million and reported a net loss of $121.7 million in 2025.
Fastly charges customers based on usage of its platform, primarily bandwidth consumed through CDN delivery, alongside subscription fees for security products including its web application firewall, bot management, API security, and DDoS protection. Enterprise customers—who account for most of the revenue base—do not typically hold long-term financial commitments; most contracts run one year or less, and customers may reduce or terminate usage with limited advance notice. The platform covers content delivery, edge computing via WebAssembly-based serverless compute, unified application security, and AI traffic management including semantic caching and edge data stores. The company serves industries including ecommerce, streaming media, gaming, financial services, and high tech, primarily through a direct sales model supplemented by a self-service tier for smaller customers.
Show full overview
Fastly's customer concentration risk is specific and named. TikTok was one of the company's largest customers in 2025, and the filing notes that a January 2026 ByteDance announcement—establishing TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC in compliance with a U.S. law requiring divestiture—may affect traffic levels on the platform in ways that cannot yet be quantified. Combined with the 10% concentration in a single affiliated-company group, any reduction in that customer's usage could weigh on revenue disproportionately given the platform's usage-based billing structure.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From Fastly, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Fastly, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Fastly (FSLY) Expected to Post Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Bank of New York Mellon Corp Sells 809,338 Shares of Fastly, Inc. $FSLY - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Fastly surges amid strong Q1 results, guidance - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Fastly (FSLY) Projected to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Fastly stock jumps nearly 100% this week on AI-fueled earnings - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:32Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomertop 10 customers32%10-K Item 1A: 'Our 10 largest customers generated an aggregate of 32% ... of our revenue in the trailing 12 months ended December 31, 2025'
- LOWCustomeraffiliated customers of a single company10%10-K Item 1A: 'Affiliated customers that are business units of a single company generated an aggregate of 10% of the Company's revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $27.03 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $25.14. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $24.83 reached (−8.1% from $27.03); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $25.14. Stop-loss: $25.14.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.3); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Fastly, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 42.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
18 analysts cover FSLY with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $29.
What does Fastly, Inc. do?Fastly operates an edge cloud platform for content delivery, application security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge...
Fastly operates an edge cloud platform for content delivery, application security (WAF, DDoS, bot management), and edge computing, serving enterprise customers across ecommerce, media, gaming, and financial services globally. Revenue is usage-based; the top 10 customers generated 32% of trailing-12-month revenue as of December 31, 2025, and the company posted a net loss of $121.7 million in 2025.