Farmland Partners is an expensive small-cap REIT (price to operating cash flow of 24.4x) with declining revenue, recent earnings misses and a price 12.9% above the analyst target, offset only by strong margins and a 3.5% dividend.
Thesis pillars
- Expensive Cash Flow Valuation→Stable
- Declining Revenue→Stable
- Recent Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026
Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Specialty
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.13 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Farmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed REIT that owns and leases approximately 71,600 acres of U.S. farmland across eleven states, with roughly 60% of portfolio value in primary row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, and cotton and 40% in specialty crops such as... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.13 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 118d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Farmland Partners Inc.
About Farmland Partners Inc.
Approximately 71,600 acres across eleven states -- including Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, and Nebraska -- make up Farmland Partners' owned farmland portfolio, split roughly 60% primary row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, and cotton and 40% specialty crops including almonds, pistachios, and citrus. Net income fell 47.6% to $32.2 million in 2025 from $61.5 million in 2024, even as Adjusted Funds from Operations rose 27% to $17.9 million.
Farmland Partners earns its principal revenue from rent paid by farm-operator tenants under one-to-three-year leases, many of which are fixed-rate and require at least 50% -- sometimes all -- of annual rent in advance of spring planting to limit tenant credit-risk exposure; a smaller share of leases carry variable rents tied to a tenant's farming revenue. The company also participates in the FPI Loan Program, lending to landowners and tenant and non-tenant farmers secured by farmland, crops, and equipment. During 2025 the company disposed of 60 properties across the Corn Belt, Delta and South, High Plains, and West Coast regions for $90.2 million, acquired six Corn Belt properties for $7.3 million, sold its Murray Wise Associates auction and brokerage subsidiary for $5.3 million, and reduced total indebtedness to $161.6 million from $204.6 million a year earlier.
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The portfolio's roughly 60/40 split between primary row crops and higher-value specialty crops carries asymmetric risk: any decline in corn, soybean, wheat, rice, or cotton prices could disproportionately hit results given that concentration, while the 40% allocated to permanent specialty crops such as almonds and citrus is costlier to convert to other uses if demand shifts, since trees and vines take years to replant and mature. Separately, state laws in several core markets -- including Missouri, where the company owned 815 acres in 2025 -- restrict corporate ownership of farmland, and its Missouri holdings may face a legal challenge that could force a sale on unfavorable terms.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Specialty
From Farmland Partners Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Farmland Partners Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Farmland Partners (NYSE:FPI) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Farmland Partners (NYSE:FPI) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.01 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Farmland Partners (NYSE:FPI) Announces Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.01 EPS - marketbeat.com — marketbeat.com positive
- NEWS Farmland Partners: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - kare11.com — kare11.com neutral
- NEWS Farmland Partners: Q2 Earnings Snapshot - WKYC — WKYC neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $10.13 — A.R:R is negative (-2.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 40 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $9.65. Score 4.2/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $8.92 reached (−11.9% from $10.13); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $9.65. Stop-loss: $9.65.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Farmland Partners Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 42.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover FPI with a consensus score of 2.3/5. Average price target: $11.
What does Farmland Partners Inc. do?Farmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed REIT that owns and leases approximately 71,600 acres of U.S. farmland...
Farmland Partners Inc. is an internally managed REIT that owns and leases approximately 71,600 acres of U.S. farmland across eleven states, with roughly 60% of portfolio value in primary row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, and cotton and 40% in specialty crops such as almonds, pistachios, and citrus. The company earns rental income from farm-operator tenants under one-to-three-year leases with fixed and variable rent components, and also offers a loan program financing landowners and tenant and non-tenant farmers; net income was $32.2 million in 2025 on total indebtedness of $161.6