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FNVFranco-Nevada CorporationBuy Wait6.4·$214.75-1.82%
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Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $223.02 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum.

Franco-Nevada Corporation operates as a royalty and stream company focused on precious metals in South America, Central America, Mexico, the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, and Africa. The company operates through Precious Metals, Other Mining and Energy segments. It... Read more

$214.75+25.2% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#22 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-1.96%
IncomeYield0.80%(5y avg 0.93%)Payout22.25%sustainable
Entry $223.02(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $206.48Target $258.58(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$297.22+38.4%9 analysts
$258.58our TP
$214.75price
$297.22mean
$345

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $223.02 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 11, 202664d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.5 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.8
P/E (Fwd)22.8
Mkt Cap$42.2B
EV/EBITDA21.7
Profit Mgn65.7%
ROE19.0%
Rev Growth77.7%
Beta0.89
Dividend0.80%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.10bearish
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume
6.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $213.28Resistance $243.72

Price Targets

$206
$223
$259
A.Upside+20.4%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.8%
Max %1.5%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FNV stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $223.02 but weak momentum still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $258.58 (+20.4%), stop $206.48 (−4.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FNV stock price target?

Take-profit target: $258.58 (+25.2% upside). Target $258.58 (+20.4%), stop $206.48 (−4.0%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $206.48.

What are the risks of investing in FNV?

Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum.

Is FNV overvalued or undervalued?

Franco-Nevada Corporation trades at a P/E of 30.8 (forward 22.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FNV?

19 analysts cover FNV with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $297.

What does Franco-Nevada Corporation do?Franco-Nevada Corporation operates as a royalty and stream company focused on precious metals in South America, Central...

Franco-Nevada Corporation operates as a royalty and stream company focused on precious metals in South America, Central America, Mexico, the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, and Africa. The company operates through Precious Metals, Other Mining and Energy segments. It also manages its portfolio with a focus on precious metals, such as gold, silver, and platinum group metals; and engages in the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids through a third-party marketing agent. Franco-Nevada Corporation was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · AU (AngloGold Ashanti PLC)
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