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HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company LimHold6.1·$15.87+4.34%
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Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim (HMY) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.47× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has nine underground operations in the... Read more

$15.87+23.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#24 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield151.13%
IncomeYield2.57%(5y avg 1.31%)Payout14.61%sustainable
Stop $14.75Target $19.56(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.2:1
Analyst target$23.01+45.0%3 analysts
$19.56our TP
$15.87price
$23.01mean
$27

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.47× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 74d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and materials cycle peak fwd=4.8x,ratio=0.47x. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 27, 202674d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 32%
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.47× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Consecutive earnings misses (4)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.2
P/E (Fwd)4.8
Mkt Cap$10.0B
EV/EBITDA0.5
Profit Mgn20.1%
ROE33.5%
Rev Growth19.5%
Beta0.70
Dividend2.57%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV85%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 257.0%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.4
Quality Rank
4.9
Value Rank
8.8
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5MATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=4.8x,ratio=0.47xA.R:R 2.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 74d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $14.32Resistance $18.64

Price Targets

$15
$20
A.Upside+23.3%
A.R:R2.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 2.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.8x,ratio=0.47x

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-27 (74d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HMY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.87, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.47× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $19.56 (+23.3%), stop $14.75 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HMY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.56 (+23.3% upside). Target $19.56 (+23.3%), stop $14.75 (−7.6%), A.R:R 2.2:1. Stop-loss: $14.75.

What are the risks of investing in HMY?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 4.8× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.47× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Consecutive earnings misses (4); Negative momentum.

Is HMY overvalued or undervalued?

Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 4.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HMY?

11 analysts cover HMY with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Harmony Gold Mining Company Lim do?Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in...

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface source operations in South Africa. In addition, the company owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and the Wafi-Golpu project located in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. Further, it holds interest in Eva Copper Project located in Queensland, Australia. Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited was incorporated in 1950 and is based in Randfontein, South Africa.

Related stocks: IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · DRD (DRDGOLD Limited) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.)
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