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FMSFresenius Medical Care AGSell4.7·$22.35+2.55%
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Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.35: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Fresenius Medical Care AG provides dialysis and related services for individuals with renal diseases in Germany, the United States, and internationally. The company offers dialysis treatment and related laboratory and diagnostic services through a network of outpatient dialysis... Read more

$22.35+3.2% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#23 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield14.29%
IncomeYield4.00%(5y avg 1.30%)Payout43.94%sustainable
Stop $21.48Target $23.07(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$26.51+18.6%7 analysts
$23.07our TP
$22.35price
$26.51mean
$18
$38

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.35: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202656d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$11.7B
EV/EBITDA6.4
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth-5.5%
Beta0.81
Dividend4.00%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV101%elevated
Max Pain$13-44.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -5.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.1
Declining revenue: -6%

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.4
Quality Rank
3.8
Value Rank
7.2

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
0.8
Gap
5.0
52w Position
5.4

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.2
Roa
2.4
Net Margin
2.4
Roe
2.6
Operating Margin
3.3
Moat
3.9
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.6
Fcf Quality
10.0
Excellent cash conversion: 177% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.55Resistance $22.50

Price Targets

$21
$23
A.Upside+3.2%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FMS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.35: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.7/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 60. Prior stop was $21.48. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FMS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.07 (+3.2% upside). Prior stop was $21.48. Stop-loss: $21.48.

What are the risks of investing in FMS?

Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is FMS overvalued or undervalued?

Fresenius Medical Care AG trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FMS?

26 analysts cover FMS with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $27.

What does Fresenius Medical Care AG do?Fresenius Medical Care AG provides dialysis and related services for individuals with renal diseases in Germany, the...

Fresenius Medical Care AG provides dialysis and related services for individuals with renal diseases in Germany, the United States, and internationally. The company offers dialysis treatment and related laboratory and diagnostic services through a network of outpatient dialysis clinics; materials, training, and patient support services comprising clinical monitoring, follow-up assistance, and arranging for delivery of the supplies to the patient's residence; and dialysis services under contract to hospitals in the United States for the hospitalized end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients and for patients suffering from acute kidney failure. The company operates through Care Delivery and Care Enablement segments. It also develops, manufactures, and distributes various health care products, including hemodialysis machines, peritoneal dialysis cyclers, peritoneal dialysis solutions, hemodialysis concentrates, solutions and granulates, bloodlines, renal pharmaceuticals, systems for water treatment, and acute cardiopulmonary and apheresis products. In addition, the company develops, acquires, and in-licenses renal pharmaceuticals; offers renal medications and supplies to patients at homes or to dialysis clinics; and provides vascular specialty, ambulatory surgery center, physician nephrology practice management, pharmacy and other services. The company sells its products to dialysis clinics, hospitals, and specialized treatment clinics, as well as through local sales forces, independent distributors, dealers, and sales agents. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Bad Homburg, Germany.

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