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Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $94.34. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $98.09. Engine's entry $94.34 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois (37.0%).

Addus HomeCare provides personal care, hospice, and home health services in 23 states via ~262 offices, serving ~107,000 consumers in 2025. Revenue of $1.42B in 2025 comes primarily from state Medicaid programs (39.3%) and Medicare (20.5%), with Illinois (37.0%), Texas (15.2%),... Read more

$98.09+27.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#4 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
Entry $94.34(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $89.54Target $121.33(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.6:1Setup A.R:R 5.5:1
Analyst target$139.46+42.2%13 analysts
$121.33our TP
$98.09price
$139.46mean
$160

Wait for pullback to $94.34. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $98.09. Engine's entry $94.34 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois (37.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois (37.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.6
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA11.8
Profit Mgn6.7%
ROE9.3%
Rev Growth25.6%
Beta0.96
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$90-8.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicIllinois37%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 37.0% of our net service revenues from services provided in Illinois'
  • MEDIUMGeographicTexas15%
    10-K Item 1A: '37.0% of our net service revenues from services provided in Illinois, 13.1% from services provided in New Mexico and 15.2% from services provided in Texas'
  • MEDIUMGeographicNew Mexico13%
    10-K Item 1A: '13.1% from services provided in New Mexico and 15.2% from services provided in Texas'
  • MEDIUMCustomerIllinois Department on Aging programs18%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 18.1%...of our revenue from the Illinois Department on Aging programs'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.6
Support Resistance
2.3
52w Position
5.7

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dA.R:R 3.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $90.89Resistance $99.45

Price Targets

$90
$94
$121
A.Upside+23.7%
A.R:R3.6:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)5.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ADUS stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $94.34. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $98.09. Engine's entry $94.34 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois (37.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $121.33 (+23.7%), stop $89.54 (−9.5%), Setup A.R:R 5.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ADUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $121.33 (+27.6% upside). Target $121.33 (+23.7%), stop $89.54 (−9.5%), Setup A.R:R 5.5:1. Stop-loss: $89.54.

What are the risks of investing in ADUS?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Illinois (37.0%).

Is ADUS overvalued or undervalued?

Addus HomeCare Corporation trades at a P/E of 18.6 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about ADUS?

20 analysts cover ADUS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $139.

What does Addus HomeCare Corporation do?Addus HomeCare provides personal care, hospice, and home health services in 23 states via ~262 offices, serving...

Addus HomeCare provides personal care, hospice, and home health services in 23 states via ~262 offices, serving ~107,000 consumers in 2025. Revenue of $1.42B in 2025 comes primarily from state Medicaid programs (39.3%) and Medicare (20.5%), with Illinois (37.0%), Texas (15.2%), and New Mexico (13.1%) being the largest revenue states.

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