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FDUSFidus Investment CorporationSell5.5·$19.70-0.56%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

FDUS combines an elite Rule of 40 score, a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, and continued attractive valuation with a breakout technical setup, though it has already reached its price target — causing a negative asymmetry gate failure — and options markets show elevated put/call skew.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation SupportStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak With Elite Rule Of 40Deteriorating
  • Target Reached Negative AsymmetryDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Fidus Investment Corporation (FDUS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth.

Fidus Investment Corporation is an externally managed business development company (BDC) that provides customized debt (first lien, second lien, subordinated) and equity financing to U.S. lower middle-market companies with $10-150 million in revenue and $5-30 million in EBITDA,... Read more

$19.70-5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#127 of 238 Asset Management
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield5.89%
IncomeYield10.84%(5y avg 10.03%)Payout106.76%at-risk
Stop $18.94Target $20.36(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$21.50+9.1%5 analysts
$20.36our TP
$19.70price
$21.50mean
$23

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Fidus Investment Corporation

About Fidus Investment Corporation

Fidus Investment Corporation, an externally managed BDC, held debt and equity investments in 103 lower middle-market portfolio companies worth $1.3 billion in aggregate fair value as of December 31, 2025, up from $1.1 billion across 91 companies a year earlier. Information Technology Services made up 35.7% of the portfolio's fair value, the largest of nineteen industry segments, while the Southeast U.S. accounted for 29.1% of fair value, the largest of six geographic regions; the weighted average yield on debt investments was 12.6%.

Fidus invests primarily in first lien, second lien, and subordinated debt to U.S. companies with $10 million to $150 million in revenue and $5 million to $30 million in EBITDA, typically committing $5 million to $35 million per portfolio company, often paired with warrants or minority equity stakes. Two wholly owned subsidiaries, Fidus Mezzanine Capital III and IV, hold SBA-guaranteed SBIC licenses that let Fidus borrow low-cost, long-term fixed-rate SBA debentures, capped at $350 million in aggregate for commonly controlled SBICs, subsidizing returns relative to competitors funded solely with bank or public debt. Fidus Investment Advisors, LLC manages the portfolio under an Investment Advisory Agreement, earning a 1.75% annual base management fee on total assets plus a two-part incentive fee — 20% of pre-incentive-fee net investment income above a 2% quarterly hurdle, and 20% of cumulative realized capital gains net of losses. The portfolio spans nineteen industry segments and six geographic regions, with Information Technology Services (35.7% of fair value) and the Southeast U.S. (29.1%) as the largest single concentrations in an otherwise diversified book.

Show full overview

Fidus has no employees of its own; the entire investment process — sourcing, underwriting, structuring, and monitoring — sits with Fidus Investment Advisors under an Investment Advisory Agreement the 10-K describes as something the company's relationship with its advisor is governed by and dependent on, with fee terms and conflicts of interest that the independent directors must review annually. That external-management dependency sits alongside a portfolio that, while diversified across 103 companies, has more than a third of its fair value concentrated in Information Technology Services and nearly 30% concentrated in the Southeast U.S. — so a downturn specific to either that sector or that region would weigh on results more than a proportionate diversified allocation would suggest.

See also: Financial Services · Asset Management

From Fidus Investment Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202676d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 36%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.6
P/E (Fwd)10.0
Mkt Cap$752M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn45.4%
ROE10.8%
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta0.72
Dividend10.84%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV81%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.7
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.34Resistance $20.78

Price Targets

$19
$20
A.Upside-5.1%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FDUS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $19.70 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Weak growth. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $18.94. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FDUS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.36 (-5.1% upside). Prior stop was $18.94. Stop-loss: $18.94.

What are the risks of investing in FDUS?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.

Is FDUS overvalued or undervalued?

Fidus Investment Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.6 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FDUS?

12 analysts cover FDUS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Fidus Investment Corporation do?Fidus Investment Corporation is an externally managed business development company (BDC) that provides customized debt...

Fidus Investment Corporation is an externally managed business development company (BDC) that provides customized debt (first lien, second lien, subordinated) and equity financing to U.S. lower middle-market companies with $10-150 million in revenue and $5-30 million in EBITDA, investing through two SBIC-licensed subsidiaries that access SBA-guaranteed debenture leverage capped at $350 million. As of December 31, 2025, the company held debt and equity investments in 103 portfolio companies with an aggregate fair value of $1.3 billion, a 12.6% weighted average debt yield, and a portfolio concen

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