Value
7.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.2 |
| P/S | 7.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.6x
- ▸Attractively valued
FDUS · Why this verdict
Why Fidus Investment (FDUS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Fidus Investment is a business development company with strong margins (45%) at an attractive valuation (forward P/E 9.4x), but price is within 0.8% of the $18.70 analyst target, momentum is weak and the high yield is flagged as unsafe.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company reports strong margins of 45%, with quarterly revenue of $24.0M in June 2026 and a forward P/E of 9.4x. Quality breakdown | Quarterly revenue should stay above $23M and margins above 40%. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF/NI is only 57% (an earnings quality warning), the Piotroski F-Score is just 4.4, and revenue is provisional, so reported margins may be flattering. | ||
The high yield is flagged as a yield trap with a dividend safety score of 4.0, and earnings growth scores 0.0. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety score should rise above 6.0 with earnings covering the payout. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings matched or beat estimates in all four recent quarters (2 beats, 2 inline), so the dividend may be covered by net investment income. | ||
Momentum scores 3.2 with falling OBV, though the price remains above its 200-day average after a pullback with RSI at 40. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as volume accumulation returns. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe 52-week position score of 8.3 and Bollinger score of 8.2 show the stock is still near the upper part of its range, so this is a mild pullback. | ||
At $18.56 the stock is only 0.8% below its $18.70 analyst target, with 5.0% downside, giving reward-to-risk of 0.16. Upside pct | Analyst target should rise above $20.00 to restore meaningful upside. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light (5 analysts), so the target may lag an improving book and not cap the price. | ||
The company reports strong margins of 45%, with quarterly revenue of $24.0M in June 2026 and a forward P/E of 9.4x.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should stay above $23M and margins above 40%.
CounterFCF/NI is only 57% (an earnings quality warning), the Piotroski F-Score is just 4.4, and revenue is provisional, so reported margins may be flattering.
The high yield is flagged as a yield trap with a dividend safety score of 4.0, and earnings growth scores 0.0.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety score should rise above 6.0 with earnings covering the payout.
CounterEarnings matched or beat estimates in all four recent quarters (2 beats, 2 inline), so the dividend may be covered by net investment income.
Momentum scores 3.2 with falling OBV, though the price remains above its 200-day average after a pullback with RSI at 40.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover above 4.5 as volume accumulation returns.
CounterThe 52-week position score of 8.3 and Bollinger score of 8.2 show the stock is still near the upper part of its range, so this is a mild pullback.
At $18.56 the stock is only 0.8% below its $18.70 analyst target, with 5.0% downside, giving reward-to-risk of 0.16.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst target should rise above $20.00 to restore meaningful upside.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light (5 analysts), so the target may lag an improving book and not cap the price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 45%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 57% FCF/NI
Growth
2.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 3.7 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 7.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.7 |
| beta | 8.6 |
| debt equity | 5.1 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.2 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.40
Upside
-2.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.3; weakest: Growth at 2.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7, and Quality at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 2.4, Insider at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Margin Income Vehicle
Trip ifNet margin falls below 35% from the current 45%.
- P2Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.0.
- P3Weak Momentum Pullback
Trip ifShare price falls below its 200-day moving average for more than 10 trading days.
- P4Target Nearly Reached
Trip ifShare price drops to $17.80 or lower, the stop-loss level, from the current $18.56.