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FASTFastenal CompanyHold5.6·$45.98-1.73%
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Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Fastenal distributes industrial and construction supplies through 1,595 locations in 25 countries, primarily serving manufacturing and construction customers via Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI), branch, and eBusiness channels. Revenue is B2B-focused with 2025 manufacturing... Read more

$45.98+1.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#5 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.71%
IncomeYield2.00%(5y avg 2.16%)Payout79.65%
Stop $44.04Target $46.82(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$46.72+1.6%11 analysts
$46.82our TP
$45.98price
$46.72mean
$40
$55

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: conservative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Jul 13, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.1 in RISK_OFF)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)40.7
P/E (Fwd)33.5
Mkt Cap$52.8B
EV/EBITDA28.0
Profit Mgn15.4%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth12.4%
Beta0.73
Dividend2.00%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.78neutral
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
3.0
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
3.3
Peg Ratio
3.5
Ps
6.0
Forward P/E: 33.5xPEG: 3.37
GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Conservative
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $42.91Resistance $47.78

Price Targets

$44
$47
A.Upside+1.8%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-13 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FAST stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $45.98, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $46.82 (+1.8%), stop $44.04 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FAST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.82 (+1.8% upside). Target $46.82 (+1.8%), stop $44.04 (−4.4%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $44.04.

What are the risks of investing in FAST?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Expensive valuation.

Is FAST overvalued or undervalued?

Fastenal Company trades at a P/E of 40.7 (forward 33.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about FAST?

23 analysts cover FAST with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $47.

What does Fastenal Company do?Fastenal distributes industrial and construction supplies through 1,595 locations in 25 countries, primarily serving...

Fastenal distributes industrial and construction supplies through 1,595 locations in 25 countries, primarily serving manufacturing and construction customers via Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI), branch, and eBusiness channels. Revenue is B2B-focused with 2025 manufacturing segment sales of approximately $6.2 billion; it employs 24,489 people.

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