Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the CNM stock price target?

Take-profit $54.45 (+10.3% upside). Prior stop was $46.85.

Q: Is CNM overvalued or undervalued?

Core & Main, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.8 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about CNM?

19 analysts cover CNM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $61.

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

$49.33+10.3% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#15 of 17 Industrial Distribution

Stop $46.85Target $54.45(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.5:1

Analyst target$60.50+22.6%16 analysts

$54.45our TP

$49.33price

$60.50mean

$40

$75

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Weak overall score: 4.7/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.8

P/E (Fwd)16.9

Mkt Cap$9.8B

EV/EBITDA12.9

Profit Mgn5.8%

ROE24.0%

Rev Growth-6.9%

Beta1.00

DividendNone

Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.33bearish

IV71%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

MEDIUMCustomermunicipal market44%
10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025 were related to the municipal market.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
M. Susan Hardwick appointed to Board of Directors effective April 1, 2026, filling a new Class III director vacancy. Former CEO of American Water Works (2022-2025). Also appointed to Talent and Compensation Committee. No prior arrangement cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.315%0.94

Quality5.415%0.81

Growth2.315%0.34

Momentum1.410%0.14

Sentiment6.910%0.69

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.510%0.45

Technical Setup6.85%0.34

Risk Profile4.75%0.24

Catalyst4.05%0.20

Overall (Σ contributions)4.66

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Macd

1.7

Rsi

3.5

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -6.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.8

Earnings Growth

3.8

Declining revenue: -7%

GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate

RSI

32 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $48.30Resistance $54.81

Price Targets

$47

$54

A.Upside+10.4%

A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-06-09 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CNM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $49.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $46.85. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.45 (+10.3% upside). Prior stop was $46.85. Stop-loss: $46.85.

What are the risks of investing in CNM?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.7/10.

Is CNM overvalued or undervalued?

Core & Main, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.8 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CNM?

19 analysts cover CNM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Core & Main, Inc. do?Core & Main is a specialty distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection infrastructure...

Core & Main is a specialty distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection infrastructure products with over 370 branches across the U.S. and Canada serving more than 60,000 customers. Revenue is split across municipal (44%), non-residential (38%), and residential (18%) end markets within an estimated $44 billion addressable market. It is one of only two national distributors in this fragmented market.