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CNMCore & Main, Inc.Sell5.1·$48.33-3.46%
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Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%).

Core & Main distributes water, wastewater, storm drainage and fire protection products through over 370 branches across the U.S. and Canada, serving more than 60,000 customers including municipalities, private water companies and contractors. The company holds roughly 17% of an... Read more

$48.33+12.8% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#13 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.68%
Stop $44.95Target $54.54(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$60.60+25.4%15 analysts
$54.54our TP
$48.33price
$60.60mean
$40
$75

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Sep 8, 202685d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.5
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$9.4B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn5.9%
ROE23.9%
Rev Growth-0.1%
Beta0.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$70+44.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductpipes, valves & fittings67%
    10-K Item 1: 'Pipes, valves & fittings products accounted for approximately 67% of our net sales in fiscal 2025.'
  • MEDIUMCustomermunicipal end market44%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 44% of our net sales in fiscal 2025 were related to the municipal market.'
  • MEDIUMSuppliertop ten suppliers
    10-K Item 1: 'our top ten suppliers represented approximately 45% of total product expenditures during the same period'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    M. Susan Hardwick appointed to the Board effective April 1, 2026, filling a new Class III director vacancy. Former CEO of American Water Works Company (AWK), 2022-2025. Appointed to Talent and Compensation Committee. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.5
Earnings Growth
3.9
Declining revenue: -0%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
3.6
Rsi
4.5
Volume
9.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $44.71Resistance $53.82

Price Targets

$45
$55
A.Upside+12.8%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-09-08 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $44.95. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CNM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.54 (+12.8% upside). Prior stop was $44.95. Stop-loss: $44.95.

What are the risks of investing in CNM?

Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5; Weak growth.

Is CNM overvalued or undervalued?

Core & Main, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.5 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CNM?

18 analysts cover CNM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Core & Main, Inc. do?Core & Main distributes water, wastewater, storm drainage and fire protection products through over 370 branches across...

Core & Main distributes water, wastewater, storm drainage and fire protection products through over 370 branches across the U.S. and Canada, serving more than 60,000 customers including municipalities, private water companies and contractors. The company holds roughly 17% of an estimated $44 billion addressable market, with pipes, valves & fittings representing approximately 67% of net sales.

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