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FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc.Sell5.3·$229.75+2.44%
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Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $229.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6).

Ferguson is the largest distributor of plumbing, HVAC, pipes/valves/fittings, and water/wastewater products in North America, operating 1,746 branches with ~35,000 associates. The US segment contributes 95% of net sales across all 50 states; the Canada segment contributes 5%... Read more

$229.75+11.5% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#9 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.59%(5y avg 1.84%)Payout33.27%sustainable
Stop $219.43Target $256.11(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$284.57+23.9%21 analysts
$256.11our TP
$229.75price
$284.57mean
$325

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $229.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.1
P/E (Fwd)17.9
Mkt Cap$43.5B
EV/EBITDA16.0
Profit Mgn6.3%
ROE
Rev Growth3.6%
Beta1.13
Dividend1.59%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.25bearish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States95%
    10-K Item 1: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $214.44Resistance $243.83

Price Targets

$219
$256
A.Upside+11.5%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FERG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $229.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $219.43. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the FERG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $256.11 (+11.5% upside). Prior stop was $219.43. Stop-loss: $219.43.

What are the risks of investing in FERG?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is FERG overvalued or undervalued?

Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.1 (forward 17.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FERG?

31 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $285.

What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson is the largest distributor of plumbing, HVAC, pipes/valves/fittings, and water/wastewater products in North...

Ferguson is the largest distributor of plumbing, HVAC, pipes/valves/fittings, and water/wastewater products in North America, operating 1,746 branches with ~35,000 associates. The US segment contributes 95% of net sales across all 50 states; the Canada segment contributes 5% under the Wolseley brand. No single customer accounts for more than 1% of net sales.

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