Ferguson has beaten earnings estimates in three consecutive quarters — including a roughly 24% outperformance two quarters ago — and offers roughly 8.7% upside to its analyst-derived take-profit target at a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67-to-1; however, quality metrics are below average with no identifiable competitive moat, roughly 95% of revenue is concentrated in a single geography, and the stock has recently dipped below its 200-day moving average in what technicals characterize as a pullback within a still-rising uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Deficit No Competitive Moat→Stable
- Us Geographic Revenue Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Three Consecutive Earnings Beats→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Sep 26, 2025
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. At $240.45, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%).
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split... Read more
Sell if holding. At $240.45, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 10.1% After Joining The S&P 500 Index - What's Changed - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 10.1% After Joining The S&P 500 Index - What's Changed - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS GREEN CENTURY BALANCED FUND's Ferguson Enterprises Inc(FERG) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Ferguson Enterprises Inc.(NYSE: FERG) added to S&P 500 Growth - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com positive
- NEWS Why Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Is Up 9.5% After S&P 500 Debut And Dividend Declaration - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States95%10-K Item 1: 'The United States segment contributed 95% of net sales in each of fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $240.45, A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 6.1%; Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 81. Prior stop was $228.51. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $255.03 (+6.1% upside). Prior stop was $228.51. Stop-loss: $228.51.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (95.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.1%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.7 (forward 18.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover FERG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $283.
What does Ferguson Enterprises Inc. do?Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada,...
Ferguson distributes plumbing, HVAC, PVF, and water/wastewater products across 1,746 branches in the U.S. and Canada, targeting a $340 billion North American residential and non-residential construction market. The U.S. segment contributed 95% of net sales in fiscal 2025, split roughly two-thirds from repair/maintenance/improvement and one-third from new construction; no single customer exceeded 1% of net sales.