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AITApplied Industrial TechnologiesSell5.7·$299.10
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Applied Industrial Technologies is a high-quality industrial distribution franchise — earning a perfect 9-out-of-9 Piotroski financial health score and recognized as best-in-class among peers on margins — but the stock trades just 1.2% below its price target with a risk/reward ratio of 0.26-to-1 that is deeply unfavorable for new exposure. Falling on-balance volume and a 2.2x average-volume surge on a recent selloff day introduce a near-term distribution signal that adds caution to an otherwise sound fundamental picture.

Thesis pillars

  • Stretched Valuation Unfavorable Risk Reward↑Improving
  • Piotroski Perfect Score Best In Class Margins→Stable
  • Bearish Volume Distribution Signal↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 13, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) Stock Analysis

SellQualityModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $299.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Applied Industrial Technologies, based in Cleveland, distributes industrial bearings, power transmission, fluid power, flow control and automation products through about 580 facilities and 6,900 associates, mainly in North America. It resells products from thousands of... Read more

$299.10+10.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 19 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield3.06%
IncomeYield0.69%(5y avg 0.80%)Payout17.72%sustainable
Stop $284.03Analyst target $330.60(−13% haircut)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst consensus$380.00+27.0%6 analysts
$330.60Analyst target
$299.10price
$380.00mean
$400

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $299.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Applied Industrial Technologies

About Applied Industrial Technologies

Applied Industrial Technologies generated 88% of its fiscal 2026 sales in the United States, with Canada at 6% and Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Costa Rica together at 6%. The Cleveland, Ohio company reports two segments, Service Center at 64% of sales and Engineered Solutions at 36%, and employs approximately 6,900 associates, 5,300 of them in the United States. Its network of about 580 facilities stocks more than 9.4 million SKUs.

Applied buys from thousands of product manufacturers as a non-exclusive distributor and resells to thousands of customers in food processing, aggregates, chemicals, fabricated metals, mining, oil and gas, utilities, technology and other industries, plus government entities. Service Center, with about 420 facilities, covers MRO-focused distribution of bearings, motors, belting, drives, pumps, hydraulic and pneumatic components and hoses, supported by onsite training, repair and vendor-managed inventory. Engineered Solutions, with about 160 facilities and approaching 40% of sales, designs, integrates and repairs fluid power, specialty flow control and automation systems including machine vision and robotics. The filing describes Engineered Solutions as higher margin, and names the largest U.S. fluid power distribution position. Competitors are local, regional, national and multinational specialist and general line distributors, along with OEMs and integrators. Suppliers confine direct sales to large-volume transactions with large OEMs and refer maintenance and repair buyers to distributors.

Show full overview

Supplier authorizations form the main dependency. Relationships with key suppliers are longstanding but terminable by either party, and authorizations vary by region, particularly in fluid power, flow control and automation. If key suppliers changed distributor programs, the number of authorizations, purchasing incentives or moved to serve end users directly, sales and earnings could be affected. Some suppliers pay volume-based incentives that may require year-over-year purchase growth, so a drop in customer demand could reduce incentive income. Customer concentration is minimal, since no single customer accounts for more than 5% of 2026 sales, and the 10-K lists reshoring, datacenter and semiconductor buildouts as demand drivers.

See also: Industrials · Industrial Distribution

From Applied Industrial Technologies's most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jan 26, 202788d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.4
P/E (Fwd)22.6
Mkt Cap$11.0B
EV/EBITDA17.7
Profit Mgn8.4%
ROE22.5%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.85
Dividend0.69%
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.91neutral
IV37%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicUnited States88%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our operations are primarily based in the United States where 88% of our 2026 sales were generated.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-08-14Item 5.02LOW
    Pamela J. Tomczik (Target SVP, Treasurer and Business Development) elected to the board Aug 11, 2026 with a term expiring October 2026; a director also retires under the age-72 policy. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Volume
7.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $292.81Resistance $352.01

Price Targets

$284
$331
A.Upside+10.5%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-01-26 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AIT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $299.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $284.03. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AIT stock price target?

Analyst target: $330.60 (+10.5% upside). Prior stop was $284.03. Stop-loss: $284.03.

What are the risks of investing in AIT?

Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (88.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is AIT overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Industrial Technologies trades at a P/E of 26.4 (forward 22.6). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AIT?

13 analysts cover AIT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $380.

What does Applied Industrial Technologies do?Applied Industrial Technologies, based in Cleveland, distributes industrial bearings, power transmission, fluid power,...

Applied Industrial Technologies, based in Cleveland, distributes industrial bearings, power transmission, fluid power, flow control and automation products through about 580 facilities and 6,900 associates, mainly in North America. It resells products from thousands of manufacturers as a non-exclusive distributor to thousands of MRO and OEM customers, with no customer above 5% of fiscal 2026 sales. Service Center is 64% of sales and Engineered Solutions 36%.

Related stocks: QXO (QXO, Inc.) · DSGR (Distribution Solutions Group, I) · DNOW (DNOW Inc.) · GIC (Global Industrial Company) · FAST (Fastenal Company)
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