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SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Evotec is a deeply discounted (65% drawdown) specialty drug services company with declining revenue, cash burn and repeated earnings misses; the only bull argument is a 139.5% gap to a thinly covered analyst target of $3.59.

Thesis pillars

  • Cash Burn Weak Quality→Stable
  • Shrinking Revenue Base→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Evotec SE (EVO) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Earnings in 7 days (2026-11-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.60: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 8.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

Evotec SE operates as a drug discovery and development company in the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Shared R&D and Just – Evotec Biologics. The company is developing pharmaceutical products in... Read more

QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-14.20%
Stop $1.49Analyst target $3.57(−15% haircut)A.R:R 8.2:1
Analyst consensus$4.20+161.8%3 analysts
$3.57Analyst target
$1.60price
$4.20mean
$7

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.60: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 8.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Evotec SE

Latest news

Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:51Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)-8.4
Mkt Cap$570M
EV/EBITDA-7.9
Profit Mgn-27.5%
ROE-26.1%
Rev Growth-16.2%
Beta1.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -16.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -16%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -27.5%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Moat
3.2
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
8.0
Cash-burning: FCF -11% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
2.8
Support Resistance
3.1

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
4.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MEarnings in 7 days

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.3
Quality Rank
1.6
Value Rank
8.5
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.1>=5.5A.R:R 8.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
53 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1.33Resistance $1.73

Price Targets

$1
$4
A.Upside+122.5%
A.R:R8.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EVO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $1.60: Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 8.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53. Prior stop was $1.49. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EVO stock price target?

Analyst target: $3.57 (+122.5% upside). Prior stop was $1.49. Stop-loss: $1.49.

What are the risks of investing in EVO?

Quality below floor (1.6 < 4.0).

Is EVO overvalued or undervalued?

Evotec SE trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EVO?

12 analysts cover EVO with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $4.

What does Evotec SE do?Evotec SE operates as a drug discovery and development company in the United States, Germany, France, the United...

Evotec SE operates as a drug discovery and development company in the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Shared R&D and Just – Evotec Biologics. The company is developing pharmaceutical products in various therapeutic areas, such as oncology, autoimmune, cancer, diabetes, heart failure, immunology, pain and inflammation, infectious, kidney, liver, respiratory, fibrotic and metabolic diseases, and rare diseases. It is also developingcentral nervous system (CNS) and cardiometabolic diseases; and animal and women health. The company has collaboration agreements with Mass General Brigham and Joslin Diabetes Center focusing on cardiometabolic diseases; BMS antiviral; Novo Nordisk cell therapy; University of Oxford; German Cancer Research Center; University Hospital in Hamburg; University of Toronto, Harvard, and Yale; Johns Hopkins University; Ospedale San Raffaele (OSR); and National University of Singapore. In addition, it has a partnership with LAB282, LAB150, beLAB2122, beLAB1407, LAB eN², Danube Labs, VC Amplitude Ventures, LaB eN2, and 65LAB. Further, the company serves pharma and biotechnology companies, academic institutions, patient advocacy groups, and venture capital. Evotec SE has strategic collaboration with Almirall, S.A. for the development of novel therapeutics for severe skin diseases, including a range of immune-mediated inflammatory conditions. The company collaborate with Odyssey Therapeutics, Inc. to designs and develops AI based discovery platform to discover new treatments in autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. The company was formerly known as Evotec AG and changed its name to Evotec SE in April 2019. Evotec SE was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.

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