Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.3 |
| P/S | 7.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
- ▸Attractively valued
ESNT · Why this verdict
Why Essent Group (ESNT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 4.8 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 54%
- ▸Rule of 40: 52 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
3.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.4%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
| erm sentiment | 3.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,661,682 (0.031% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.4 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 240.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:53d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.19
Upside
+1.0%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Quality at 7.6, and Sentiment at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 3.7, Insider at 3.8, and Peer rank at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.