The company is the industry growth leader with four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and free cash flow running at 31% of revenue despite a GAAP accounting loss, but the stock trades within 1% of the analyst price ceiling, a 21% short interest creates substantial overhang, and a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average limits the near-term setup quality despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Strength Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Short Interest Downtrend Overhang↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Stock Analysis
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Could Be 16% Overvalued After Margin Pressure Raises Fresh Questions - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Could Be 16% Overvalued After Margin Pressure Raises Fresh Questions - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty faces demand scrutiny despite expectations for strong quarterly results - Proactive Investors — Proactive Investors positive
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Is Up 5.3% After Margin Squeeze Tests Profitability Of Its Growth Story - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-09-14T04:31:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerTarget18%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerWalmart13%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerAmazon11%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerSephora10%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States79%10-K Item 1: 'The United States accounted for 79% of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina10-K Item 1A: 'because the majority of our products are sourced and manufactured in China, our operations are susceptible to risks inherent in doing business there'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $96.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $107.84 (+11.7%), stop $90.13 (−7.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $107.84 (-7.4% upside). Target $107.84 (+11.7%), stop $90.13 (−7.1%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $90.13.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 98.9 (forward 25.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover ELF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $100.
What does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. do?e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well...
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026 (ended March 31); Target, Walmart, Amazon, and Sephora were the four largest customers at 18%, 13%, 11%, and 10% of net sales, respectively.