The company is the industry growth leader with four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and free cash flow running at 31% of revenue despite a GAAP accounting loss, but the stock trades within 1% of the analyst price ceiling, a 21% short interest creates substantial overhang, and a confirmed downtrend below the 200-day moving average limits the near-term setup quality despite strong underlying fundamentals.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Strength Despite Gaap Loss→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- Short Interest Downtrend Overhang↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 21, 2026
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Could Be 16% Overvalued After Margin Pressure Raises Fresh Questions - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Could Be 16% Overvalued After Margin Pressure Raises Fresh Questions - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com negative
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty faces demand scrutiny despite expectations for strong quarterly results - Proactive Investors — Proactive Investors positive
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Is Up 5.3% After Margin Squeeze Tests Profitability Of Its Growth Story - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:08:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerTarget18%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerWalmart13%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerAmazon11%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- LOWCustomerSephora10%10-K Item 1: 'Our largest customers, Target, Walmart, Amazon and Sephora, accounted for 18%, 13%, 11% and 10%, respectively, of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- HIGHGeographicUnited States79%10-K Item 1: 'The United States accounted for 79% of our net sales in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026.'
- MEDIUMSupplierChina10-K Item 1A: 'because the majority of our products are sourced and manufactured in China, our operations are susceptible to risks inherent in doing business there'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $115.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $103.44 reached (−10.4%), stop $107.39 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $103.44 reached (−10.4% from $115.41); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $103.44 reached (−10.4%), stop $107.39 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $107.39.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (79.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. trades at a P/E of 117.8 (forward 29.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
23 analysts cover ELF with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $115.
What does e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. do?e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well...
e.l.f. Beauty sells cosmetics and skincare under five brands — e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. SKIN, rhode, Naturium, and Well People — through mass, specialty, and e-commerce retailers primarily in the U.S. and internationally. The U.S. accounted for 79% of net sales in fiscal 2026 (ended March 31); Target, Walmart, Amazon, and Sephora were the four largest customers at 18%, 13%, 11%, and 10% of net sales, respectively.