Value
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
ELF · Why this verdict
Why e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.2 |
| Op margin | 0.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 31%, FCF yield 2.9%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -9.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 4.5 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $15,965,408 (0.542% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 6.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.7 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 2.0 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 18%
- ▸High IV: 77%
- ▸Above max pain $40
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:58d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.79
Upside
+22.3%
Downside
12.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 2.39>1.3, MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Insider at 3.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.